Premier League
Sunderland vs 
Brighton Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 49.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 74.1% for over 7.5 to 21.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. On the corner count, Sunderland are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 48.9%, with a level count at 10.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 21.1% | 78.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
70.2%
55.0%
40.3%
64.9%
48.8%
34.2%
Corner handicap
| Sunderland line | Sunderland | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| -0.5 | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| +0.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| +1.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
This season (2026/27)
4.0Sunderland corners won per game3.8Sunderland corners conceded per game5.4Brighton corners won per game4.6Brighton corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Sunderland.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
51.3%Over 9.5 corners55.0%Sunderland over 4.5 corners48.8%Brighton over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Sunderland over 4.5 corners sits at 55.0% and Brighton at 48.8%. This season Sunderland have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Brighton 5.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Sunderland vs Brighton?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.3% for Sunderland vs Brighton.
Which team will win the corner count in Sunderland vs Brighton?
The model rates Sunderland to win the corner count at 48.9%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Sunderland and Brighton average this season?
Sunderland have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Brighton 5.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
