Premier League
Arsenal vs 
Leeds Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 49.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.6% for over 7.5 to 20.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.7%. Head to head on corners, Arsenal are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.3%, with a level count at 9.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 20.6% | 79.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
76.4%
62.5%
48.2%
55.8%
39.1%
25.4%
Corner handicap
| Arsenal line | Arsenal | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| -1.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| -0.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| +0.5 | 69.9% | 30.1% |
This season (2026/27)
5.0Arsenal corners won per game3.2Arsenal corners conceded per game4.4Leeds corners won per game4.8Leeds corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Arsenal.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
50.7%Over 9.5 corners62.5%Arsenal over 4.5 corners39.1%Leeds over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Arsenal over 4.5 corners sits at 62.5% and Leeds at 39.1%. This season Arsenal have averaged 5.0 corners won a game and Leeds 4.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 50.7% for Arsenal vs Leeds.
Which team will win the corner count in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model rates Arsenal to win the corner count at 60.3%, with a level count at 9.6%.
How many corners do Arsenal and Leeds average this season?
Arsenal have won 5.0 corners a game this season and Leeds 4.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
