Italy national team predictions
Our model’s probabilities for Italy’s upcoming international matches, from one rating of every national team since 1990.
Model probabilities only. There are no free bookmaker prices in our sources for these matches, so we cannot show how our numbers compare with the market, and these matches are not part of our betting record or our AI experts.
- 2Upcoming matches priced
- 1Competition
Upcoming Italy predictions
2 upcoming matches with a model probability. The national team model rates teams on senior results only. Competition standings use the saved feed when available.
- 127.2%3.68X27.3%3.66245.5%2.20
- 155.6%1.80X24.9%4.02219.5%5.12
World Cup qualifiers (Europe) standings
Latest completed edition: 2024. Source: API-FOOTBALL. Snapshot saved 2026-10-23 20:12 UTC.
Official feed order and points are preserved, including deductions. Groups and stages are shown separately. P = played, W = won, D = drawn, L = lost, GF/GA = goals for/against, GD = goal difference. Form follows the source order.
Group I
UEFA Nations League standings
Competition season: 2026. Source: API-FOOTBALL. Snapshot saved 2026-10-23 20:12 UTC.
This snapshot is older than 48 hours. A newer table has not been saved yet.
Official feed order and points are preserved, including deductions. Groups and stages are shown separately. P = played, W = won, D = drawn, L = lost, GF/GA = goals for/against, GD = goal difference. Form follows the source order.
League A - Group A
European Championship standings
Latest completed edition: 2024. Source: API-FOOTBALL. Snapshot saved 2026-10-23 20:12 UTC.
Official feed order and points are preserved, including deductions. Groups and stages are shown separately. P = played, W = won, D = drawn, L = lost, GF/GA = goals for/against, GD = goal difference. Form follows the source order.
Group B
Euro qualifiers standings
Latest completed edition: 2023. Source: API-FOOTBALL. Snapshot saved 2026-10-23 20:12 UTC.
Official feed order and points are preserved, including deductions. Groups and stages are shown separately. P = played, W = won, D = drawn, L = lost, GF/GA = goals for/against, GD = goal difference. Form follows the source order.
Group C
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  EnglandPromotion - Euro | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 20 | DWWDW |
| 2 |  ItalyPromotion - Euro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 14 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  UkrainePromotion - Euro (Promotion: ) | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 | DWWLD |
| 4 |  FYR Macedonia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 5 |  Malta | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 0 | LLLLL |
How the model works, and how we tested it
Every national team gets one strength rating, updated after each senior match since 1990. A World Cup match moves the rating most, a friendly least, and a bigger win moves it more.
Ratings as of 7 October 2026: the newest match result the rating has learned from. Matches played after that date are not in it yet.
We ran the model over 7,576 friendlies, qualifiers and Nations League matches from 2016 to 2025, using only what it could have known before each one. It beat a guess based on how often home wins, draws and away wins happen (log loss 0.865 against 1.044, lower is better), and when it says 60% the result happened about 60 times in 100. It has not been compared with bookmaker prices.
We do not know the venue of every match: finals tournaments count as neutral ground, everything else as a home match for the first-named team. Friendlies are the hardest to call, because teams rotate players.
The small number under each probability is the price with no bookmaker cut: 1 divided by our probability. A real bookmaker pays less.
