Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Willem II Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 66.0% and it landed (0 in the match). We called No at 90.5% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 34.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 56.1% for over 2.5 to 8.1% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.1%. Between the two sides, Willem II are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.3%, with a level count at 23.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 17.7% | 82.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 8.1% | 91.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
35.7%
13.5%
49.8%
24.0%
Card handicap
| Ajax line | Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| -0.5 | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| +0.5 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| +1.5 | 74.7% | 25.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 21.6% | 78.5% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Ajax cards per game9.8Ajax fouls per game1.0Willem II cards per game10.2Willem II fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ajax vs Willem II. Slightly more cards are projected for Willem II for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
34.0%Over 3.5 cards9.5%Any red card35.7%Ajax over 1.5 cards49.8%Willem II over 1.5 cards34.0%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Ajax over 1.5 cards sits at 35.7% and Willem II at 49.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.5% (Ajax 2.1%, Willem II 7.6%). This season Ajax have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Willem II 1.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Ajax vs Willem II?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 34.0% for Ajax vs Willem II.
Will there be a red card in Ajax vs Willem II?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ajax vs Willem II?
Before kickoff, the model rated Willem II to pick up more cards at 47.3%, with a level count at 23.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,318 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
