Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Willem II Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 66.9% and it landed. We called Under 3.5 at 54.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 76.9% and it landed (2 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 66.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Ajax have averaged 2.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Willem II 1.0 and 2.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 66.8% for over 2.5 and 86.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Ajax have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Willem II in 4 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 86.2% | 13.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 33.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 13.5% | 86.5% |
Team goal lines
91.3%
70.0%
44.1%
63.2%
26.5%
8.1%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 57.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.3% | 81.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 86.4% | 13.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 32.2% | 67.9% |
This season (2026/27)
2.8Ajax goals scored per game1.2Ajax goals conceded per game80.0%Ajax Over 2.5 rate1.0Ajax 1st-half goals per game1.0Willem II goals scored per game2.8Willem II goals conceded per game80.0%Willem II Over 2.5 rate0.2Willem II 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
58.1%Both Teams to Score66.8%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 66.8% for three or more goals and 86.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Ajax favoured at 68.6%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Ajax to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ajax 5 · 0 draws · Willem II 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Ajax vs Willem II?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 66.8%. The match finished with 6 goals (5-1), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
