Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs 
Heerenveen Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 34.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 56.8% for over 2.5 to 8.5% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.8%. Head to head on cards, Heerenveen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.8%, with a level count at 23.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 56.8% | 43.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 18.3% | 81.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 8.5% | 91.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
35.9%
13.7%
50.6%
24.7%
Card handicap
| Sparta Rotterdam line | Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| -0.5 | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| +0.5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| +1.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 18.9% | 81.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Sparta Rotterdam cards per game10.0Sparta Rotterdam fouls per game1.2Heerenveen cards per game8.3Heerenveen fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen. Slightly more cards are projected for Heerenveen for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
34.7%Over 3.5 cards7.3%Any red card35.9%Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 cards50.6%Heerenveen over 1.5 cards30.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 cards sits at 35.9% and Heerenveen at 50.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.3% (Sparta Rotterdam 3.5%, Heerenveen 3.9%). This season Sparta Rotterdam have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Heerenveen 1.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 34.7% for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen.
Will there be a red card in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
The model rates Heerenveen to pick up more cards at 47.8%, with a level count at 23.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,318 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
