Eredivisie
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 32.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 54.4% for over 2.5 to 7.4% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. Head to head on cards, PEC Zwolle are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 24.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 16.6% | 83.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 7.4% | 92.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
36.1%
13.8%
47.2%
21.9%
Card handicap
| Groningen line | Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.1% | 86.9% |
| -0.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| +0.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| +1.5 | 76.7% | 23.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 21.0% | 79.0% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Groningen cards per game8.5Groningen fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle. The model leans toward PEC Zwolle for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
32.4%Over 3.5 cards10.3%Any red card36.1%Groningen over 1.5 cards47.2%PEC Zwolle over 1.5 cards33.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Groningen over 1.5 cards sits at 36.1% and PEC Zwolle at 47.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.3% (Groningen 5.1%, PEC Zwolle 5.5%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 32.4% for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle.
Will there be a red card in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model rates PEC Zwolle to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 24.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,318 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
