Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Willem II Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 63.7% and it landed (43 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 74.9% and it landed (16 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 63.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.9% for over 22.5 to 41.7% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.7%. On the shot count, Ajax are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.4%, with a level count at 5.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 41.7% | 58.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
79.4%
66.3%
51.9%
61.3%
45.0%
30.4%
Shot handicap
| Ajax line | Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.2% | 59.9% |
| -2.5 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| -0.5 | 62.4% | 37.7% |
| +0.5 | 67.6% | 32.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 53.9% | 46.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
21.4Ajax shots per game10.6Ajax shots faced per game11.6Willem II shots per game17.8Willem II shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Ajax.
In-depth analysis
63.7%Over 24.5 shots66.3%Ajax over 12.5 shots45.0%Willem II over 12.5 shots74.9%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Ajax over 12.5 shots sits at 66.3% and Willem II at 45.0%. This season Ajax have averaged 21.4 shots a game and Willem II 11.6.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Ajax vs Willem II?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 63.7% for Ajax vs Willem II.
Which team will have more shots in Ajax vs Willem II?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ajax to take more shots at 62.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
