Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Willem II Both Teams to Score
Result
We called Yes at 58.1% and it landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Both teams to score · Yes at 58.1%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Ajax have averaged 2.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Willem II 1.0 and 2.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 66.8% for over 2.5 and 86.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Ajax have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Willem II in 4 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Both Teams to Score
Recent scoring & conceding (per game)
2.8
1.2
1.0
2.8
Each team to score
By half
This season (2026/27)
60.0%Ajax BTTS rate40.0%Ajax clean sheets
2.8Ajax goals scored per game80.0%Willem II BTTS rate0.0%Willem II clean sheets1.0Willem II goals scored per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
58.1%Both Teams to Score66.8%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 66.8% for three or more goals and 86.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Ajax favoured at 68.6%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Ajax to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ajax 5 · 0 draws · Willem II 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Did both teams score in Ajax vs Willem II?
We rated Both Teams to Score at 58.1%. Both teams scored, final score 5-1.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Both Teams to Score accuracy
How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 26,670 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls
The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Both Teams to Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
