Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Willem II Correct Score
Result
Final score 5-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 2.3%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 9.5% at 2-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Ajax have averaged 2.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Willem II 1.0 and 2.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 66.8% for over 2.5 and 86.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2-0 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-0 | 7.8% |
| 3-1 | 7.8% |
| 1-0 | 7.4% |
| 2-2 | 4.8% |
| 4-0 | 4.7% |
Score probability grid
| Ajax \ Willem II | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Ajax goals, columns = Willem II. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 9.5%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
58.1%Both Teams to Score66.8%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 66.8% for three or more goals and 86.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Ajax favoured at 68.6%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ajax 5 · 0 draws · Willem II 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax vs Willem II finished 5-1. The model's most likely scoreline was 2-0 at 9.5%; it gave the actual 5-1 a 2.3% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
