Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Willem II Corners
Result
Settled, final score 5-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.9% for over 7.5 to 23.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.7%. Between the two sides, Ajax are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 58.3%, with a level count at 9.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 23.4% | 76.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.3%
63.7%
49.4%
60.1%
43.5%
29.2%
Corner handicap
| Ajax line | Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 29.3% | 70.8% |
| -1.5 | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| -0.5 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| +0.5 | 67.9% | 32.1% |
This season (2026/27)
6.6Ajax corners won per game2.6Ajax corners conceded per game4.2Willem II corners won per game6.4Willem II corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Ajax.
In-depth analysis
54.7%Over 9.5 corners63.7%Ajax over 4.5 corners43.5%Willem II over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Ajax over 4.5 corners sits at 63.7% and Willem II at 43.5%. This season Ajax have averaged 6.6 corners won a game and Willem II 4.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Ajax vs Willem II?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 54.7% for Ajax vs Willem II.
Which team will win the corner count in Ajax vs Willem II?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ajax to win the corner count at 58.3%, with a level count at 9.6%.
How many corners do Ajax and Willem II average this season?
Ajax have won 6.6 corners a game this season and Willem II 4.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,756 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
