Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Willem II Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Ajax or Draw (86.7%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Draw at 86.7%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Ajax are favoured at 68.6%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ajax by 1 | 21.7% |
| Ajax by 2 | 20.1% |
| Ajax by 3+ | 26.8% |
| Willem II by 1 | 8.7% |
| Willem II by 2 | 3.4% |
| Willem II by 3+ | 1.2% |
| Draw | 18.1% |
Goal handicap
| Ajax line | Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| -1.5 | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| -0.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| +0.5 | 86.7% | 13.3% |
This season (2026/27)
2.8Ajax goals scored per game1.2Ajax goals conceded per game1.0Willem II goals scored per game2.8Willem II goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Ajax or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
58.1%Both Teams to Score66.8%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Ajax are favoured at 68.6%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ajax 5 · 0 draws · Willem II 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Ajax vs Willem II?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 86.7%; it landed, final score 5-1.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,075 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
