Eredivisie
Willem II vs 
For Sittard Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 33.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 55.4% for over 2.5 to 7.8% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.4%. Between the two sides, For Sittard are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.2%, with a level count at 23.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 17.3% | 82.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 7.8% | 92.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
34.5%
12.7%
50.0%
24.1%
Card handicap
| Willem II line | Willem II | For Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.6% | 88.4% |
| -0.5 | 27.9% | 72.1% |
| +0.5 | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 38.9% | 61.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.6% | 74.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Willem II cards per game10.2Willem II fouls per game1.8For Sittard cards per game9.0For Sittard fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Willem II vs For Sittard. Slightly more cards are projected for For Sittard for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
33.3%Over 3.5 cards7.3%Any red card34.5%Willem II over 1.5 cards50.0%For Sittard over 1.5 cards38.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Willem II over 1.5 cards sits at 34.5% and For Sittard at 50.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.3% (Willem II 2.5%, For Sittard 4.9%). This season Willem II have averaged 1.0 cards a game and For Sittard 1.8.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Willem II vs For Sittard?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 33.3% for Willem II vs For Sittard.
Will there be a red card in Willem II vs For Sittard?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Willem II vs For Sittard?
The model rates For Sittard to pick up more cards at 48.2%, with a level count at 23.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,317 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
