EredivisieADO Den Haag vs 
Cambuur Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 34.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 57.1% for over 2.5 to 8.5% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.1%. On the card count, Cambuur are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 23.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 57.1% | 43.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 18.5% | 81.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 8.5% | 91.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
37.0%
14.3%
50.1%
24.2%
Card handicap
| ADO Den Haag line | ADO Den Haag | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| -0.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| +0.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| +1.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.2% | 71.8% |
This season (2026/27)
1.5Cambuur cards per game11.8Cambuur fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur. It tips Cambuur for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
34.9%Over 3.5 cards13.1%Any red card37.0%ADO Den Haag over 1.5 cards50.1%Cambuur over 1.5 cards41.9%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, ADO Den Haag over 1.5 cards sits at 37.0% and Cambuur at 50.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (ADO Den Haag 9.7%, Cambuur 3.7%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 34.9% for ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur.
Will there be a red card in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
The model rates Cambuur to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 23.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,317 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
