Ajax vs Willem II prediction & probabilities (2026-09-15)

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Ajax vs Willem II: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Ajax

WDWLW

Full time5-1Tue, 15 Sep 202619:00UK
Willem II

LLDLD

Model’s top convictions

87%

Ajax or draw

86%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time3 of 4 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Ajax 5-1 Willem II
ResultOver 2.5 goalsOver 1.5 goalsOver 3.5 goalsBoth teams to score
4 of 5 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Ajax at 68.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 66.9% and it landed (6 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 86.2% and it landed (6 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 54.9% and it missed (6 goals). We called Yes at 58.1% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Model pick

Ajax68.6%

Win probability · fair 1.46

Top signals

Ajax or drawVery likely86.7%Fair 1.15
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely86.2%Fair 1.16
Over 2.5 goalsLikely66.8%Fair 1.50

Model read

Few Eredivisie fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Ajax carry a 69% win probability against Willem II on 15 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Ajax at 88%. Caution noted. 2) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 67% with both teams to score at 58%. 3) Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Ajax against W0 D3 L3 for Willem II. As a promoted side, Willem II carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The recent series reads 5 wins for Ajax, 0 draws and 0 for Willem II over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.03)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.6%@ 2.35
Over 11.5 corners33.7%@ 2.97
Draw or Willem II31.4%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Both teams to score58.1%@ 1.72
Over 9.5 corners52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds

2-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.49
2-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.49
1-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.20

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ajax

68.6%-19.1%

Draw

18.1%+9.0%

Willem II

13.3%+10.2%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.03)

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely86.2%Fair 1.16
Over 2.5Likely66.8%Fair 1.50
BTTS · YesClose call58.1%Fair 1.72

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely62.4%Fair 1.60
Over 9.5 cornersClose call52.3%Fair 1.91
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.6%Fair 2.35
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely33.7%Fair 2.97
Most cornersAjax58.1%Willem II32.0%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely73.9%Fair 1.35
Over 24.5 shotsLikely63.7%Fair 1.57
Over 26.5 shotsClose call52.7%Fair 1.90
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely41.7%Fair 2.40

Recent shot volume

Ajax21.7 taken11.5 faced
Willem II11.5 taken17.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.586.2%2.566.8%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.566.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AjaxWDWLW
Willem IILLDLD

Last 5 meetings: Ajax 5 · 0 draws · Willem II 0 · 2.8 goals/game.

2025-04-13Willem II 1-2 Ajax
2024-10-27Ajax 1-0 Willem II
2022-02-19Willem II 0-1 Ajax
2021-12-02Ajax 5-0 Willem II
2021-01-28Ajax 3-1 Willem II

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AjaxWillem II
League position#5 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L3-1-10-2-3
Current streakW1D1
Points per game2.000.40
Record, home vs away0-1-10-1-1
Goals scored per game2.801.00
Goals conceded per game1.202.80
1st half goals per game1.000.20
2nd half goals per game1.800.80
Corners won per game6.64.2
Cards per game2.41.0
Fouls per game9.810.2
Red cards this season00
Shots per game21.411.6
Shots faced per game10.617.8
Shots on target per game7.22.4
Over 2.5 rate

80.0%80.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%80.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%0.0%

Rates this season:AjaxWillem II

League averages this season: 3.91 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 79% · BTTS in 74%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Ajax win1.101.46
Draw9.005.52
Willem II win21.007.52
Over 2.5 goals1.221.50
Under 2.5 goals4.203.01

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ajax win1.46
Draw5.53
Willem II win7.52
Both teams to score1.72

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.16
Over 2.5 goals1.50
Over 3.5 goals2.22
Over 4.5 goals3.79
Ajax most1.46
Willem II most7.52

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.83
Over 10.5 corners2.32
Ajax most1.71
Willem II most3.12

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.78
Over 3.5 cards2.94
Over 4.5 cards5.65
Over 5.5 cards12.41
Ajax most3.47
Willem II most2.11

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.19
Over 7.5 SoT1.33
Over 8.5 SoT1.55
Over 9.5 SoT1.86
Ajax most1.73
Willem II most3.17

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.57
Over 26.5 shots1.90
Over 28.5 shots2.40
Ajax most1.60
Willem II most3.08

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.04
Over 22.5 fouls2.94
Over 24.5 fouls4.64
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 73.9% Over 24.5 63.7% Over 26.5 52.7% Over 28.5 41.7%
Most: Ajax 62.4% Most: Willem II 32.4%
Ajax Over 13.2 59.1% Willem II Over 13.2 37.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 83.7% Over 7.5 74.9% Over 8.5 64.7% Over 9.5 53.9%
Most: Ajax 57.9% Most: Willem II 31.5%
Ajax Over 4.2 63.2% Willem II Over 4.2 44.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 56.1% Over 3.5 34.0% Over 4.5 17.7%
Most: Ajax 28.8% Most: Willem II 47.3%
Ajax Over 1.8 35.7% Willem II Over 1.8 49.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Ajax clean sheet 35.4%
Willem II clean sheet 8.7%
Ajax win to nil 31.8%
Willem II win to nil 5.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 68.6% draw 18.1% away 13.3%
double_chance
1X 86.7% 12 81.9% X2 31.4%
dnb
home 83.8% away 16.2%
btts
yes 58.1% no 41.9%
clean_sheet
home 36.8% away 8.7%
win_to_nil
home 33.2% away 5.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.7% home_by_2 20.1% home_by_3plus 26.8%
away_by_1 8.7% away_by_2 3.4% away_by_3plus 1.2%
correct_score
0-0 3.6% 0-1 2.8% 0-2 1.6%
0-3 0.5% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 7.4% 1-1 8.2% 1-2 3.9%
1-3 1.3% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.5% 2-1 9.5% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.6% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 7.8% 3-1 7.8% 3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 4.7% 4-1 4.7% 4-2 2.4%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 2.3% 5-1 2.3% 5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 3.9%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 100.0% p 9.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.4% under_0.5 3.6% over_1.5 86.2%
under_1.5 13.8% over_2.5 66.9% under_2.5 33.2%
over_3.5 45.1% under_3.5 54.9% over_4.5 26.4%
under_4.5 73.6% over_5.5 13.5% under_5.5 86.5%
odd_even
odd 49.2% even 50.8%
team_home
over_0.5 91.3% under_0.5 8.7% over_1.5 70.0%
under_1.5 30.0% over_2.5 44.1% under_2.5 55.9%
team_away
over_0.5 63.2% under_0.5 36.8% over_1.5 26.5%
under_1.5 73.5% over_2.5 8.1% under_2.5 91.9%
most
home 68.6% draw 18.1% away 13.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.8% away_+2.5 73.2% home_-1.5 46.9%
away_+1.5 53.1% home_-0.5 68.6% away_+0.5 31.4%
home_+0.5 86.7% away_-0.5 13.3% home_+1.5 95.4%
away_-1.5 4.6% home_+2.5 98.8% away_-2.5 1.2%
total_exact
exact_0 3.6% exact_1 10.2% exact_2 19.3%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 18.7% exact_5 12.9%
exact_6 7.4% exact_7plus 6.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 57.3% draw 32.4% away 10.3%
total
over_0.5 76.9% under_0.5 23.1% over_1.5 43.1%
under_1.5 57.0% over_2.5 18.3% under_2.5 81.8%
btts
yes 18.7% no 81.3%
total_exact
exact_0 23.1% exact_1 33.9% exact_2 24.8%
exact_3 12.1% exact_4plus 6.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 55.9% draw 27.8% away 16.4%
total
over_0.5 86.4% under_0.5 13.6% over_1.5 59.2%
under_1.5 40.8% over_2.5 32.2% under_2.5 67.9%
btts
yes 34.2% no 65.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 51.4% H/D 4.5% H/A 1.4%
D/H 18.1% D/D 9.0% D/A 5.3%
A/H 2.6% A/D 2.7% A/A 5.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.9% under_7.5 23.1% over_8.5 66.3%
under_8.5 33.7% over_9.5 54.7% under_9.5 45.3%
over_10.5 43.1% under_10.5 56.9% over_11.5 32.5%
under_11.5 67.5% over_12.5 23.4% under_12.5 76.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.3% under_3.5 22.7% over_4.5 63.7%
under_4.5 36.3% over_5.5 49.4% under_5.5 50.6%
team_away
over_3.5 60.1% under_3.5 40.0% over_4.5 43.5%
under_4.5 56.5% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.8%
most
home 58.3% draw 9.6% away 32.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.3% away_+3.5 70.8% home_-1.5 48.3%
away_+1.5 51.7% home_-0.5 58.3% away_+0.5 41.7%
home_+0.5 67.9% away_-0.5 32.1% home_+1.5 76.4%
away_-1.5 23.6% home_+3.5 89.0% away_-3.5 11.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.9% under_22.5 26.1% over_24.5 63.7%
under_24.5 36.3% over_26.5 52.7% under_26.5 47.3%
over_28.5 41.7% under_28.5 58.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 79.4% under_10.5 20.6% over_12.5 66.3%
under_12.5 33.7% over_14.5 51.9% under_14.5 48.1%
team_away
over_10.5 61.3% under_10.5 38.7% over_12.5 45.0%
under_12.5 55.0% over_14.5 30.4% under_14.5 69.6%
most
home 62.4% draw 5.2% away 32.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.2% away_+4.5 59.9% home_-2.5 51.3%
away_+2.5 48.7% home_-0.5 62.4% away_+0.5 37.7%
home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.4% home_+2.5 76.9%
away_-2.5 23.1% home_+4.5 84.5% away_-4.5 15.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 83.7% under_6.5 16.3% over_7.5 74.9%
under_7.5 25.1% over_8.5 64.7% under_8.5 35.3%
over_9.5 53.9% under_9.5 46.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.1% under_3.5 22.9% over_4.5 63.2%
under_4.5 36.8% over_5.5 48.7% under_5.5 51.3%
team_away
over_3.5 61.2% under_3.5 38.8% over_4.5 44.4%
under_4.5 55.7% over_5.5 29.8% under_5.5 70.3%
most
home 58.0% draw 10.5% away 31.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 36.2% away_+2.5 63.8% home_-0.5 58.0%
away_+0.5 42.1% home_+0.5 68.5% away_-0.5 31.5%
home_+2.5 85.1% away_-2.5 14.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 56.1% under_2.5 43.9% over_3.5 34.0%
under_3.5 66.0% over_4.5 17.7% under_4.5 82.3%
over_5.5 8.1% under_5.5 91.9%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 35.7% under_1.5 64.3% over_2.5 13.5%
under_2.5 86.5%
team_away
over_1.5 49.8% under_1.5 50.2% over_2.5 24.0%
under_2.5 76.1%
most
home 28.8% draw 23.9% away 47.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.2% away_+1.5 87.8% home_-0.5 28.8%
away_+0.5 71.2% home_+0.5 52.7% away_-0.5 47.3%
home_+1.5 74.7% away_-1.5 25.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 49.0% under_20.5 51.0% over_22.5 34.0%
under_22.5 66.0% over_24.5 21.6% under_24.5 78.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 46.8% under_9.5 53.2% over_11.5 26.0%
under_11.5 74.0% over_13.5 12.1% under_13.5 87.9%
team_away
over_9.5 65.1% under_9.5 34.9% over_11.5 43.7%
under_11.5 56.3% over_13.5 25.3% under_13.5 74.8%
most
home 33.2% draw 7.6% away 59.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 15.0% away_+3.5 85.0% home_-0.5 33.2%
away_+0.5 66.8% home_+2.5 56.7% away_-2.5 43.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.5% no 90.5%
home
yes 2.1% no 97.9%
away
yes 7.6% no 92.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ajax predictions · Willem II predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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