Eredivisie
Feyenoord vs 
Utrecht Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 33.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 55.3% for over 2.5 to 7.8% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.3%. On the card count, Utrecht are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.9%, with a level count at 23.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 33.3% | 66.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 7.8% | 92.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
33.9%
12.3%
50.4%
24.5%
Card handicap
| Feyenoord line | Feyenoord | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.2% | 88.8% |
| -0.5 | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| +0.5 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| +1.5 | 73.6% | 26.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.0% | 71.0% |
This season (2026/27)
0.7Feyenoord cards per game8.7Feyenoord fouls per game2.2Utrecht cards per game16.3Utrecht fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Feyenoord vs Utrecht. It tips Utrecht for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
33.3%Over 3.5 cards15.0%Any red card33.9%Feyenoord over 1.5 cards50.4%Utrecht over 1.5 cards42.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Feyenoord over 1.5 cards sits at 33.9% and Utrecht at 50.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.0% (Feyenoord 6.4%, Utrecht 9.2%). This season Feyenoord have averaged 0.7 cards a game and Utrecht 2.2.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 33.3% for Feyenoord vs Utrecht.
Will there be a red card in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
The model rates Utrecht to pick up more cards at 48.9%, with a level count at 23.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,317 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
