Bristol City vs Lincoln prediction & probabilities (2026-09-15)

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Bristol City vs Lincoln: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Championship
Bristol City

DWWWL

Tue, 15 Sep 202619:45UK
Lincoln

LWDDW

Model’s top convictions

80%

Bristol City or draw

76%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.023 <= 0.03.

Model pick

Bristol City55.1%

Win probability · fair 1.81

Top signals

Bristol City or drawVery likely79.6%Fair 1.26
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely76.4%Fair 1.31
Over 8.5 cornersLikely68.3%Fair 1.46

Model read

"Bristol City or Lincoln? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Bristol City heavy favourites at 55% when Bristol City meet Lincoln in the Championship on 15 September 2026. The market broadly agrees, pricing Bristol City at 53%. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Bristol City against W2 D2 L2 for Lincoln. As a promoted side, Lincoln carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners47.6%@ 2.10
Draw or Lincoln44.9%@ 2.23
Over 11.5 corners37.8%@ 2.65
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners58.0%@ 1.72
Both teams to score52.3%@ 1.91
Over 2.5 goals51.7%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.55
1-0 correct score10.8%@ 9.28
2-0 correct score10.0%@ 10.02

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Bristol City

55.1%+2.3%

Draw

24.5%-0.8%

Lincoln

20.4%-1.5%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely76.4%Fair 1.31
Over 2.5Close call51.7%Fair 1.93
BTTS · YesClose call52.3%Fair 1.91

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely68.3%Fair 1.46
Over 9.5 cornersClose call58.0%Fair 1.72
Over 10.5 cornersClose call47.6%Fair 2.10
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely37.8%Fair 2.65
Most cornersBristol City56.5%Lincoln33.2%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.5%Fair 1.53
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.1%Fair 1.88
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely40.9%Fair 2.45
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot29.7%Fair 3.37

Recent shot volume

Bristol City13.2 taken13.7 faced
Lincoln13.2 taken15.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.4%2.551.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

Bristol CityDWWWL
LincolnLWDDW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Bristol CityLincoln
League position#11 of 24#16 of 24
Record W-D-L3-1-22-2-2
Current streakL1W1
Points per game1.671.33
Record, home vs away1-0-12-0-1
PPG, home vs away·2.00
Goals scored per game1.670.83
Goals conceded per game1.831.00
Scored, home vs away·1.00
Conceded, home vs away·0.67
1st half goals per game0.500.33
2nd half goals per game1.170.50
Corners won per game4.54.5
Cards per game1.52.2
Fouls per game11.713.2
Red cards this season10
Shots per game13.213.2
Shots faced per game13.715.3
Shots on target per game4.32.8
Over 2.5 rate

83.3%33.3%

BTTS rate

83.3%50.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%50.0%

Rates this season:Bristol CityLincoln

League averages this season: 2.86 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 67%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Bristol City win1.791.81
Draw3.604.08
Lincoln win4.104.90
Over 2.5 goals2.031.93
Under 2.5 goals1.832.07

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Bristol City win1.81
Draw4.07
Lincoln win4.91
Both teams to score1.91

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.94
Over 3.5 goals3.39
Bristol City most1.81
Lincoln most4.91

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.23
Over 8.5 corners1.40
Over 9.5 corners1.66
Over 10.5 corners2.06
Bristol City most1.77
Lincoln most3.01

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.44
Over 3.5 cards2.07
Over 4.5 cards3.42
Over 5.5 cards6.46
Bristol City most3.84
Lincoln most1.88

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.87
Over 8.5 SoT2.45
Over 9.5 SoT3.39
Bristol City most1.91
Lincoln most2.88

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.88
Over 26.5 shots2.45
Over 28.5 shots3.37
Bristol City most1.71
Lincoln most2.81

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.69
Over 22.5 fouls2.31
Over 24.5 fouls3.46
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.5% Over 24.5 53.1% Over 26.5 40.9% Over 28.5 29.7%
Most: Bristol City 58.4% Most: Lincoln 35.5%
Bristol City Over 13.2 48.1% Lincoln Over 13.2 31.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.6% Over 7.5 53.6% Over 8.5 40.8% Over 9.5 29.5%
Most: Bristol City 52.3% Most: Lincoln 34.7%
Bristol City Over 4.2 43.3% Lincoln Over 4.2 30.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.6% Over 3.5 48.3% Over 4.5 29.2%
Most: Bristol City 26.0% Most: Lincoln 53.2%
Bristol City Over 1.8 42.8% Lincoln Over 1.8 63.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Bristol City clean sheet 37.1%
Lincoln clean sheet 17.2%
Bristol City win to nil 30.1%
Lincoln win to nil 10.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 55.1% draw 24.5% away 20.4%
double_chance
1X 79.6% 12 75.5% X2 44.9%
dnb
home 73.0% away 27.0%
btts
yes 52.3% no 47.7%
clean_sheet
home 37.5% away 17.2%
win_to_nil
home 30.5% away 10.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.8% home_by_2 17.1% home_by_3plus 14.1%
away_by_1 13.1% away_by_2 5.3% away_by_3plus 2.0%
correct_score
0-0 7.0% 0-1 5.8% 0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.0% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.8% 1-1 11.7% 1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.0% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.6% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.9% 3-1 5.8% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.6% 4-1 2.5% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.0% under_0.5 7.0% over_1.5 76.4%
under_1.5 23.6% over_2.5 51.7% under_2.5 48.3%
over_3.5 29.5% under_3.5 70.5% over_4.5 14.3%
under_4.5 85.7% over_5.5 6.0% under_5.5 94.0%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 82.8% under_0.5 17.2% over_1.5 52.5%
under_1.5 47.5% over_2.5 25.9% under_2.5 74.1%
team_away
over_0.5 62.6% under_0.5 37.5% over_1.5 25.8%
under_1.5 74.2% over_2.5 7.7% under_2.5 92.3%
most
home 55.1% draw 24.5% away 20.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.1% away_+2.5 85.9% home_-1.5 31.2%
away_+1.5 68.8% home_-0.5 55.1% away_+0.5 44.9%
home_+0.5 79.6% away_-0.5 20.4% home_+1.5 92.7%
away_-1.5 7.3% home_+2.5 98.0% away_-2.5 2.0%
total_exact
exact_0 7.0% exact_1 16.6% exact_2 24.8%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.2% exact_5 8.3%
exact_6 3.8% exact_7plus 2.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.3% draw 46.0% away 21.6%
total
over_0.5 63.6% under_0.5 36.4% over_1.5 26.8%
under_1.5 73.2% over_2.5 8.2% under_2.5 91.8%
btts
yes 15.4% no 84.6%
total_exact
exact_0 36.4% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.6%
exact_3 6.3% exact_4plus 2.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.8% draw 40.3% away 26.9%
total
over_0.5 72.3% under_0.5 27.7% over_1.5 36.7%
under_1.5 63.3% over_2.5 13.9% under_2.5 86.1%
btts
yes 22.3% no 77.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.4% H/D 5.2% H/A 1.7%
D/H 15.1% D/D 18.5% D/A 12.4%
A/H 1.7% A/D 4.4% A/A 15.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 81.0% under_7.5 19.0% over_8.5 71.2%
under_8.5 28.8% over_9.5 60.1% under_9.5 39.9%
over_10.5 48.4% under_10.5 51.6% over_11.5 37.4%
under_11.5 62.6% over_12.5 27.5% under_12.5 72.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 80.0% under_3.5 20.1% over_4.5 66.4%
under_4.5 33.6% over_5.5 51.6% under_5.5 48.4%
team_away
over_3.5 66.1% under_3.5 33.9% over_4.5 49.3%
under_4.5 50.7% over_5.5 33.9% under_5.5 66.1%
most
home 56.6% draw 10.1% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.7% away_+3.5 73.3% home_-1.5 46.1%
away_+1.5 53.9% home_-0.5 56.6% away_+0.5 43.4%
home_+0.5 66.7% away_-0.5 33.3% home_+1.5 75.7%
away_-1.5 24.3% home_+3.5 88.9% away_-3.5 11.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.5% under_22.5 34.5% over_24.5 53.1%
under_24.5 46.9% over_26.5 40.9% under_26.5 59.1%
over_28.5 29.7% under_28.5 70.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.9% under_10.5 27.1% over_12.5 56.5%
under_12.5 43.5% over_14.5 40.0% under_14.5 60.0%
team_away
over_10.5 58.2% under_10.5 41.8% over_12.5 40.0%
under_12.5 60.0% over_14.5 24.8% under_14.5 75.2%
most
home 58.4% draw 6.1% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.7% away_+4.5 66.3% home_-2.5 45.8%
away_+2.5 54.2% home_-0.5 58.4% away_+0.5 41.6%
home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5% home_+2.5 75.4%
away_-2.5 24.6% home_+4.5 84.2% away_-4.5 15.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.6% under_6.5 33.4% over_7.5 53.6%
under_7.5 46.4% over_8.5 40.8% under_8.5 59.2%
over_9.5 29.5% under_9.5 70.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.0% under_3.5 39.1% over_4.5 43.3%
under_4.5 56.7% over_5.5 28.2% under_5.5 71.8%
team_away
over_3.5 48.5% under_3.5 51.5% over_4.5 30.9%
under_4.5 69.1% over_5.5 17.8% under_5.5 82.2%
most
home 52.3% draw 13.0% away 34.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.2% away_+2.5 72.8% home_-0.5 52.3%
away_+0.5 47.7% home_+0.5 65.3% away_-0.5 34.7%
home_+2.5 85.6% away_-2.5 14.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.6% under_2.5 30.4% over_3.5 48.3%
under_3.5 51.7% over_4.5 29.2% under_4.5 70.8%
over_5.5 15.5% under_5.5 84.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 42.8% under_1.5 57.3% over_2.5 18.0%
under_2.5 82.0%
team_away
over_1.5 63.0% under_1.5 37.0% over_2.5 36.0%
under_2.5 64.0%
most
home 26.1% draw 20.8% away 53.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 11.6% away_+1.5 88.4% home_-0.5 26.1%
away_+0.5 74.0% home_+0.5 46.8% away_-0.5 53.2%
home_+1.5 68.1% away_-1.5 32.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 59.0% under_20.5 41.0% over_22.5 43.2%
under_22.5 56.8% over_24.5 28.9% under_24.5 71.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 52.5% under_9.5 47.5% over_11.5 30.3%
under_11.5 69.7% over_13.5 14.5% under_13.5 85.5%
team_away
over_9.5 73.0% under_9.5 27.0% over_11.5 52.2%
under_11.5 47.8% over_13.5 32.0% under_13.5 68.0%
most
home 30.9% draw 7.4% away 61.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 13.6% away_+3.5 86.4% home_-0.5 30.9%
away_+0.5 69.1% home_+2.5 54.2% away_-2.5 45.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.6% no 89.4%
home
yes 8.6% no 91.4%
away
yes 2.2% no 97.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Bristol City predictions · Lincoln predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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