Elche vs Real Madrid prediction & probabilities (2026-09-15)

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Elche vs Real Madrid: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

La Liga
Elche

DLLLD

Tue, 15 Sep 202620:30UK24°C · Clear
Real Madrid

WWWLW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

83%

Draw or Real Madrid

62%

Over 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.07).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Real MadridWin probability
60.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals83.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.20
Draw or Real Madrid82.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 2.5 goals61.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Real Madrid heavy favourites at 61% when Elche meet Real Madrid in the La Liga on 15 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Real Madrid at 81%. Caution noted. • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 62% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. • For shots markets, Lucas Cepeda is the obvious watch at 1.7 on target per 90 in recent data. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Elche, 2 draws and 3 for Real Madrid at 4.0 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Elche W0 D3 L3, Real Madrid W5 D0 L1. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.07)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Elche or draw39.4%@ 2.54
Over 10.5 corners38.3%@ 2.61
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.6%@ 1.68
Both teams to score59.4%@ 1.68
Over 9.5 corners48.7%@ 2.05
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.1%@ 9.87
1-2 correct score9.9%@ 10.13
0-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.43

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Elche

17.4%+10.4%

Draw

22.0%+10.1%

Real Madrid

60.6%-20.5%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.07)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.583.0%

High probability

Over 2.561.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes59.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.6%

Good chance

Over 9.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.1%

Low chance

Most cornersElche50.6%Real Madrid38.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.9%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.5%

Good chance

Over 26.540.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.1%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Elche10.3 taken12.3 faced
Real Madrid19.5 taken11.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Elche (5 games)

2.8 / 9.0

Real Madrid (5 games)

10.4 / 10.4

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.0%2.561.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.07).

Form & head-to-head

ElcheDLLLD
Real MadridWWWLW

Last 5 meetings: Elche 0 · 2 draws · Real Madrid 3 · 4.0 goals/game.

2026-03-14Real Madrid 4-1 Elche
2025-11-23Elche 2-2 Real Madrid
2023-02-15Real Madrid 4-0 Elche
2022-10-19Elche 0-3 Real Madrid
2022-01-23Real Madrid 2-2 Elche

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ElcheReal Madrid
League position#19 of 20#2 of 20
Record W-D-L0-2-34-0-1
Current streakD1W1
Points per game0.402.40
Record, home vs away0-0-21-0-1
Goals scored per game1.202.80
Goals conceded per game2.600.80
1st half goals per game0.001.60
2nd half goals per game1.201.20
Corners won per game5.28.4
Cards per game2.21.8
Fouls per game13.09.0
Red cards this season00
Shots per game11.820.8
Shots faced per game12.812.0
Shots on target per game5.29.2
1st half shots per game2.810.4
2nd half shots per game9.010.4
xG for per game1.513.16
xG against per game2.230.86
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%80.0%

BTTS rate

80.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%20.0%

Rates this season:ElcheReal Madrid

League averages this season: 2.98 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Lucas CepedaElche · key player
To score6.6%

@ 15.15

1+ on target45.2%

@ 2.21

2+ shots38.5%

@ 2.60

Shots/90 3.73SoT/90 1.68Goals/90 0.19
Kylian Mbappe-LottinReal Madrid · key player
To score59.5%

@ 1.68

1+ on target90.5%

@ 1.10

2+ shots95.4%

@ 1.05

Shots/90 5.08SoT/90 2.47Goals/90 0.95
Facundo BuonanotteElche · in form
To score13.1%

@ 7.63

1+ on target34.0%

@ 2.94

2+ shots34.5%

@ 2.90

Shots/90 2.44SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.28
Carlos EspíReal Madrid · in form
To score35.0%

@ 2.86

1+ on target60.5%

@ 1.65

2+ shots62.3%

@ 1.61

Shots/90 3.97SoT/90 1.75Goals/90 0.81
Thomas LemarElche · in form
To score11.0%

@ 9.09

1+ on target25.6%

@ 3.91

2+ shots13.7%

@ 7.30

Shots/90 1.44SoT/90 0.66Goals/90 0.26
Vinícius JúniorReal Madrid · in form
To score32.8%

@ 3.05

1+ on target66.9%

@ 1.49

2+ shots75.7%

@ 1.32

Shots/90 3.16SoT/90 1.28Goals/90 0.46

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Elche win12.005.76
Draw7.504.54
Real Madrid win1.201.65
Over 2.5 goals1.301.63
Under 2.5 goals3.502.60

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Elche win5.02
Draw4.54
Real Madrid win1.72
Both teams to score1.68

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.63
Over 3.5 goals2.55
Over 4.5 goals4.65
Elche most5.02
Real Madrid most1.72

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.61
Over 9.5 corners2.01
Over 10.5 corners2.63
Elche most1.97
Real Madrid most2.60

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.27
Over 3.5 cards1.64
Over 4.5 cards2.36
Over 5.5 cards3.80
Elche most2.37
Real Madrid most2.61

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.26
Over 7.5 SoT1.45
Over 8.5 SoT1.76
Over 9.5 SoT2.25
Elche most2.37
Real Madrid most2.21

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.54
Over 24.5 shots1.91
Over 26.5 shots2.49
Over 28.5 shots3.44
Elche most1.87
Real Madrid most2.48

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.26
Over 22.5 fouls1.48
Over 24.5 fouls1.84
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.9% Over 24.5 52.5% Over 26.5 40.2% Over 28.5 29.1%
Most: Elche 53.5% Most: Real Madrid 40.3%
Elche Over 13.2 44.2% Real Madrid Over 13.2 34.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 79.7% Over 7.5 68.8% Over 8.5 56.7% Over 9.5 44.4%
Most: Elche 42.1% Most: Real Madrid 45.3%
Elche Over 4.2 47.2% Real Madrid Over 4.2 49.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 79.0% Over 3.5 61.1% Over 4.5 42.3%
Most: Elche 42.1% Most: Real Madrid 38.3%
Elche Over 1.8 63.3% Real Madrid Over 1.8 60.7%

Elche: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Lucas Cepeda 3.73 1.68 0.19 45.2% 38.5% 6.6%
Facundo Buonanotte 2.44 0.83 0.28 34.0% 34.5% 13.1%
Thomas Lemar 1.44 0.66 0.26 25.6% 13.7% 11.0%
Tete Morente 1.45 0.36 0.09 22.9% 28.2% 6.3%
Gonzalo Villar 0.63 0.31 0.08 20.8% 8.2% 5.8%

Real Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 5.08 2.47 0.95 90.5% 95.4% 59.5%
Carlos Espí 3.97 1.75 0.81 60.5% 62.3% 35.0%
Vinícius Júnior 3.16 1.28 0.46 66.9% 75.7% 32.8%
Jude Bellingham 2.41 1.03 0.34 58.1% 60.3% 24.9%
Arda Güler 2.32 0.93 0.21 43.1% 41.0% 11.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Elche clean sheet 12.9%
Real Madrid clean sheet 31.8%
Elche win to nil 8.2%
Real Madrid win to nil 27.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 19.9% draw 22.0% away 58.1%
double_chance
1X 41.9% 12 78.0% X2 80.1%
dnb
home 25.5% away 74.5%
btts
yes 59.4% no 40.6%
clean_sheet
home 12.9% away 32.4%
win_to_nil
home 8.3% away 27.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 12.2% home_by_2 5.4% home_by_3plus 2.3%
away_by_1 22.6% away_by_2 17.8% away_by_3plus 17.8%
correct_score
0-0 4.7% 0-1 8.1% 0-2 8.8%
0-3 6.0% 0-4 3.1% 0-5 1.3%
1-0 4.2% 1-1 10.1% 1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.7% 1-4 3.5% 1-5 1.4%
2-0 2.7% 2-1 5.4% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 3.8% 2-4 1.9% 2-5 0.8%
3-0 1.0% 3-1 2.1% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.3%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.6% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.3% under_0.5 4.7% over_1.5 83.1%
under_1.5 17.0% over_2.5 61.5% under_2.5 38.5%
over_3.5 39.2% under_3.5 60.8% over_4.5 21.5%
under_4.5 78.5% over_5.5 10.3% under_5.5 89.7%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 67.6% under_0.5 32.4% over_1.5 31.1%
under_1.5 68.9% over_2.5 10.5% under_2.5 89.5%
team_away
over_0.5 87.1% under_0.5 12.9% over_1.5 60.7%
under_1.5 39.3% over_2.5 33.6% under_2.5 66.4%
most
home 19.9% draw 22.0% away 58.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.3% away_+2.5 97.7% home_-1.5 7.7%
away_+1.5 92.3% home_-0.5 19.9% away_+0.5 80.1%
home_+0.5 41.9% away_-0.5 58.1% home_+1.5 64.5%
away_-1.5 35.5% home_+2.5 82.3% away_-2.5 17.8%
total_exact
exact_0 4.7% exact_1 12.3% exact_2 21.5%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 17.7% exact_5 11.2%
exact_6 5.9% exact_7plus 4.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 14.6% draw 34.6% away 50.8%
total
over_0.5 76.6% under_0.5 23.4% over_1.5 42.6%
under_1.5 57.5% over_2.5 17.9% under_2.5 82.1%
btts
yes 21.9% no 78.1%
total_exact
exact_0 23.4% exact_1 34.0% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 11.9% exact_4plus 6.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.6% draw 32.7% away 44.7%
total
over_0.5 82.2% under_0.5 17.8% over_1.5 51.5%
under_1.5 48.5% over_2.5 25.0% under_2.5 75.0%
btts
yes 31.8% no 68.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 8.8% H/D 3.5% H/A 2.3%
D/H 7.8% D/D 11.3% D/A 15.5%
A/H 2.0% A/D 5.7% A/A 43.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.6% under_7.5 26.4% over_8.5 62.0%
under_8.5 38.0% over_9.5 49.8% under_9.5 50.2%
over_10.5 38.0% under_10.5 62.0% over_11.5 27.6%
under_11.5 72.4% over_12.5 19.1% under_12.5 80.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.8% under_3.5 28.2% over_4.5 56.0%
under_4.5 44.0% over_5.5 40.6% under_5.5 59.4%
team_away
over_3.5 63.8% under_3.5 36.2% over_4.5 46.7%
under_4.5 53.3% over_5.5 31.5% under_5.5 68.5%
most
home 50.7% draw 10.9% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.1% away_+3.5 79.0% home_-1.5 39.8%
away_+1.5 60.2% home_-0.5 50.7% away_+0.5 49.3%
home_+0.5 61.6% away_-0.5 38.4% home_+1.5 71.6%
away_-1.5 28.4% home_+3.5 86.9% away_-3.5 13.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.9% under_22.5 35.1% over_24.5 52.5%
under_24.5 47.5% over_26.5 40.2% under_26.5 59.8%
over_28.5 29.1% under_28.5 70.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.7% under_10.5 30.3% over_12.5 52.7%
under_12.5 47.3% over_14.5 36.2% under_14.5 63.8%
team_away
over_10.5 61.2% under_10.5 38.8% over_12.5 43.2%
under_12.5 56.8% over_14.5 27.5% under_14.5 72.5%
most
home 53.5% draw 6.3% away 40.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 29.2% away_+4.5 70.8% home_-2.5 40.9%
away_+2.5 59.1% home_-0.5 53.5% away_+0.5 46.5%
home_+0.5 59.7% away_-0.5 40.3% home_+2.5 71.4%
away_-2.5 28.6% home_+4.5 81.1% away_-4.5 18.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 79.7% under_6.5 20.3% over_7.5 68.8%
under_7.5 31.2% over_8.5 56.7% under_8.5 43.3%
over_9.5 44.4% under_9.5 55.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.0% under_3.5 35.0% over_4.5 47.3%
under_4.5 52.8% over_5.5 31.3% under_5.5 68.7%
team_away
over_3.5 67.1% under_3.5 32.9% over_4.5 49.6%
under_4.5 50.4% over_5.5 33.4% under_5.5 66.6%
most
home 42.1% draw 12.5% away 45.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 20.5% away_+2.5 79.5% home_-0.5 42.1%
away_+0.5 57.9% home_+0.5 54.7% away_-0.5 45.4%
home_+2.5 77.1% away_-2.5 22.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 79.0% under_2.5 21.0% over_3.5 61.1%
under_3.5 38.9% over_4.5 42.3% under_4.5 57.7%
over_5.5 26.3% under_5.5 73.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 63.3% under_1.5 36.7% over_2.5 37.3%
under_2.5 62.7%
team_away
over_1.5 60.8% under_1.5 39.3% over_2.5 34.6%
under_2.5 65.5%
most
home 42.1% draw 19.5% away 38.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 24.7% away_+1.5 75.3% home_-0.5 42.1%
away_+0.5 57.9% home_+0.5 61.7% away_-0.5 38.3%
home_+1.5 78.4% away_-1.5 21.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 79.4% under_20.5 20.7% over_22.5 67.6%
under_22.5 32.4% over_24.5 54.3% under_24.5 45.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.1% under_9.5 17.9% over_11.5 66.0%
under_11.5 34.0% over_13.5 47.5% under_13.5 52.5%
team_away
over_9.5 71.0% under_9.5 29.0% over_11.5 51.2%
under_11.5 48.8% over_13.5 32.5% under_13.5 67.5%
most
home 57.4% draw 6.6% away 36.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 37.0% away_+3.5 63.0% home_-0.5 57.4%
away_+0.5 42.7% home_+2.5 75.9% away_-2.5 24.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 22.9% no 77.1%
home
yes 13.7% no 86.3%
away
yes 10.6% no 89.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Elche predictions · Real Madrid predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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