AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
TroyesTroyesLLLLD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1019:45UK8°C · Clear
Le MansLe MansDWLLD

Troyes vs Le Mans cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.3%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Troyes vs Le Mans. It tips Le Mans for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.4% 27.6%
3.5 cards 51.7% 48.3%
4.5 cards 32.4% 67.6%
5.5 cards 17.8% 82.2%

Who picks up more cards

Troyes
32.1%
Level
21.1%
Le Mans
46.8%

Team cards lines

Troyes

Over 1.5
50.4%
Over 2.5
24.1%

Le Mans

Over 1.5
61.1%
Over 2.5
34.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Troyes's; Le Mans gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Troyes line Troyes Le Mans
-1.5 15.8% 84.2%
-0.5 32.1% 67.9%
+0.5 53.2% 46.8%
+1.5 73.1% 26.9%

Red card

Any red card7.1%
Troyes red card2.1%
Le Mans red card5.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.3% 22.8%
22.5 fouls 64.5% 35.5%
24.5 fouls 50.4% 49.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Troyes Azzedine Souifi 2 2.5 1.0
Troyes G. Paradis 2 3.5 2.5
Le Mans A. Petit 2 2.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

TroyesTroyes

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Troyes at home and Le Mans away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Le MansLe Mans
Statistic
Troyes
Le Mans
Cards per game at this venue
1.7
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.3
·

Yellow cards per game
1.9
2.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.5
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
1.7

Matches with more cards than the opponent
20.0%
·

Matches with card data
5
3
Red cards this season
0
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 51.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.4% for over 2.5 to 17.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.7%. On the card count, Le Mans are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.8%, with a level count at 21.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Troyes over 1.5 cards sits at 50.4% and Le Mans at 61.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.1% (Troyes 2.1%, Le Mans 5.1%). Troyes’s most frequent referee this season, Azzedine Souifi, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

51.7%Over 3.5 cards
7.1%Any red card
46.8%Most cards: Le Mans
50.4%Troyes over 1.5 cards
61.1%Le Mans over 1.5 cards
64.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherAzzedine Souifi, Troyes’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianLe Mans are the pick to collect more cards at 46.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
TroyesTroyes

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Le MansLe Mans
Statistic
Troyes
Le Mans
cards per game
1.4
·

fouls per game
12.6
14.5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Troyes vs Le Mans?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.7% for Troyes vs Le Mans.
Will there be a red card in Troyes vs Le Mans?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Troyes vs Le Mans?
The model rates Le Mans to pick up more cards at 46.8%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Ligue 1Troyes fixtures and statsLe Mans fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.