AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
Le HavreLe HavreDLLLL
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1018:00UK12°C · Clear
Paris SGParis SGWWWWW

Le Havre vs PSG cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined59.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined40.1%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards40.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Le Havre vs Paris SG. It tips Le Havre for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 62.3% 37.7%
3.5 cards 40.1% 59.9%
4.5 cards 22.2% 77.8%
5.5 cards 10.7% 89.3%

Who picks up more cards

Le Havre
39.2%
Level
23.4%
Paris SG
37.4%

Team cards lines

Le Havre

Over 1.5
48.4%
Over 2.5
22.4%

Paris SG

Over 1.5
47.1%
Over 2.5
21.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Le Havre's; Paris SG gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Le Havre line Le Havre Paris SG
-1.5 19.7% 80.3%
-0.5 39.2% 60.8%
+0.5 62.6% 37.4%
+1.5 81.6% 18.4%

Red card

Any red card17.3%
Le Havre red card13.0%
Paris SG red card4.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 66.1% 33.9%
22.5 fouls 51.4% 48.6%
24.5 fouls 36.9% 63.1%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Paris SG Willy Delajod 2 2.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Le HavreLe Havre

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Le Havre at home and Paris SG away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Paris SGParis SG
Statistic
Le Havre
Paris SG
Cards per game at this venue
·
0.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
3.0

Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.1
0.8

Matches with card data
4
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 40.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 62.3% for over 2.5 to 10.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 40.1%. Head to head on cards, Le Havre are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 23.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Le Havre over 1.5 cards sits at 48.4% and Paris SG at 47.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.3% (Le Havre 13.0%, Paris SG 4.9%). Paris SG’s most frequent referee this season, Willy Delajod, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

40.1%Over 3.5 cards
17.3%Any red card
39.2%Most cards: Le Havre
48.4%Le Havre over 1.5 cards
47.1%Paris SG over 1.5 cards
51.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 40.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherWilly Delajod, Paris SG’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.3%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianLe Havre are the pick to collect more cards at 39.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
Le HavreLe Havre

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Paris SGParis SG
Statistic
Le Havre
Paris SG
fouls per game
14.1
5.9

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Le Havre vs Paris SG?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 40.1% for Le Havre vs Paris SG.
Will there be a red card in Le Havre vs Paris SG?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Le Havre vs Paris SG?
The model rates Le Havre to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 23.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Ligue 1Le Havre fixtures and statsPSG fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.