AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
LorientLorientDLWWD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1019:45UK10°C · Clear
BrestBrestLLWDL

Lorient vs Brest cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.1%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards47.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lorient vs Brest. Slightly more cards are projected for Brest for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 69.2% 30.8%
3.5 cards 47.9% 52.1%
4.5 cards 28.8% 71.2%
5.5 cards 15.2% 84.8%

Who picks up more cards

Lorient
30.2%
Level
21.5%
Brest
48.3%

Team cards lines

Lorient

Over 1.5
46.2%
Over 2.5
20.6%

Brest

Over 1.5
59.7%
Over 2.5
32.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lorient's; Brest gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lorient line Lorient Brest
-1.5 14.2% 85.8%
-0.5 30.2% 69.8%
+0.5 51.7% 48.3%
+1.5 72.3% 27.7%

Red card

Any red card11.3%
Lorient red card4.4%
Brest red card7.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 74.2% 25.8%
22.5 fouls 60.8% 39.2%
24.5 fouls 46.4% 53.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Lorient Azzedine Souifi 2 1.0 0.5
Brest G. Paradis 2 5.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

LorientLorient

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lorient at home and Brest away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BrestBrest
Statistic
Lorient
Brest
Yellow cards per game
1.3
1.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.3

Matches with card data
3
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 47.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.2% for over 2.5 to 15.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.9%. Between the two sides, Brest are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.3%, with a level count at 21.5%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Lorient over 1.5 cards sits at 46.2% and Brest at 59.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.3% (Lorient 4.4%, Brest 7.3%). Lorient’s most frequent referee this season, Azzedine Souifi, has averaged 1.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

47.9%Over 3.5 cards
11.3%Any red card
48.3%Most cards: Brest
46.2%Lorient over 1.5 cards
59.7%Brest over 1.5 cards
60.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherAzzedine Souifi, Lorient’s most frequent referee this season, averages 1.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBrest are the pick to collect more cards at 48.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
LorientLorient

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BrestBrest
Statistic
Lorient
Brest
fouls per game
9.3
14.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Lorient vs Brest?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 47.9% for Lorient vs Brest.
Will there be a red card in Lorient vs Brest?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lorient vs Brest?
The model rates Brest to pick up more cards at 48.3%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 1Lorient fixtures and statsBrest fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.