Ligue 1
TroyesTroyesLLLLD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1019:45UK8°C · Clear
Le MansLe MansDWLLD

Troyes vs Le Mans xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Troyes1.20

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Le Mans1.44

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Troyes have created 1.20 xG and scored 0.50 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Le Mans have created 1.44 xG and scored 1.17 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

TroyesTroyes

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

Le MansLe Mans
Statistic
Troyes
Le Mans
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.20
1.44

xG conceded per game
1.93
1.94

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

TroyesTroyesLast 5
L
Loss · 0-2
L
Loss · 0-2
L
Loss · 0-2
L
Loss · 1-3
D
Draw · 0-0

0 wins · 1 draw · 4 losses

Le MansLe MansLast 5
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 2-1
L
Loss · 1-3
L
Loss · 0-3
D
Draw · 1-1

1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

No recorded head-to-head results available.

Match outlook

PickTroyes42.7%
Draw26.6%
Le Mans30.8%

The model leans Troyes to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

42.7%Favoured: Troyes
56.5%Both Teams to Score
52.5%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

TroyesTroyes (1)
Renaud Ripart
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
11.6%
8.62
1+ shot on target
46.5%
2.15
2+ shots
55.9%
1.79
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.88
On target0.96
Goals0.19
Le MansLe Mans (1)
Louis Mafouta
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
39.5%
2.53
1+ shot on target
74.7%
1.34
2+ shots
71.3%
1.40
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.64
On target1.45
Goals0.53

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 1, Expected Goals (xG)

Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.