AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
TroyesTroyesLLLLD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1019:45UK8°C · Clear
Le MansLe MansDWLLD

Troyes vs Le Mans shots prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined53.9%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined46.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 24.5 shots53.9%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Troyes.

What the model expects

The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.

Treat as a range

Model expected shots and shots on target, Troyes vs Le Mans
Model expects Shots On target
Troyes 13.8 4.9
Le Mans 11.5 4.0
Both teams 25.4 8.9

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 66.3% 33.8%
24.5 shots 53.9% 46.1%
26.5 shots 41.6% 58.4%
28.5 shots 30.3% 69.7%

Who takes more shots

Troyes
61.5%
Level
5.9%
Le Mans
32.6%

Team shots lines

Troyes

Over 10.5
75.1%
Over 12.5
59.1%
Over 14.5
42.7%

Le Mans

Over 10.5
56.5%
Over 12.5
38.3%
Over 14.5
23.3%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Treat as a range

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 75.9% 24.1%
7.5 shots on target 64.4% 35.6%
8.5 shots on target 52.1% 47.9%
9.5 shots on target 40.0% 60.0%

Who has more on target

Troyes
55.6%
Level
12.1%
Le Mans
32.3%

Team shots on target lines

Troyes

Over 3.5
69.9%
Over 4.5
53.3%
Over 5.5
37.4%

Le Mans

Over 3.5
54.4%
Over 4.5
36.4%
Over 5.5
22.1%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Troyes's; Le Mans gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Troyes line Troyes Le Mans
-4.5 36.6% 63.4%
-2.5 49.0% 51.0%
-0.5 61.5% 38.5%
+0.5 67.4% 32.6%

Player shots

Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.

Troyes player shots
Troyes 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Renaud Ripart 55.9% 46.5% 2.88
Antoine Mille 44.3% 31.3% 1.72
Lucas Maronnier 16.2% 13.6% 0.88
Dermane Karim 15.7% 7.7% 1.23
Adrien Monfray 30.8% 11.3% 1.12
Le Mans player shots
Le Mans 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Louis Mafouta 71.3% 74.7% 2.64
Lucas Calodat 9.0% 39.4% 0.76
Habib Diallo 40.3% 36.2% 1.79
Samuel Yohou 4.6% 15.2% 0.39
Harold Voyer 4.4% 15.3% 0.34

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Troyes in their home matches and Le Mans in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Troyes's home matches and Le Mans's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Last six at home and away: Troyes's last six home league matches and Le Mans's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.

TroyesTroyes

Recorded 2026/27

Le MansLe Mans
This season
Statistic
Troyes
Le Mans
Shots per game
13.6
10.6

Shots faced per game
11.8
16.1

Shots on target per game
2.8
3.9

On target faced per game
4.5
5.4

Matches with more shots
50.0%
12.5%

Matches
8
8
Troyes at home, Le Mans away
Statistic
Troyes
Le Mans
Shots per game
15.8
10.5

Shots faced per game
11.8
16.3

Shots on target per game
4.0
3.3

On target faced per game
4.5
5.8

Matches
4
4
By half, this season
Statistic
Troyes
Le Mans
1st-half shots
6.1
5.4

2nd-half shots
7.6
5.1

1st-half shots faced
5.8
6.3

2nd-half shots faced
6.0
9.9

1st-half shots on target
1.5
2.4

2nd-half shots on target
1.3
1.5

1st-half on target faced
2.0
2.3

2nd-half on target faced
2.5
3.1

Matches
8
8
By half, at home and away
Statistic
Troyes
Le Mans
1st-half shots
6.8
4.8

2nd-half shots
9.3
5.8

1st-half shots faced
6.3
6.3

2nd-half shots faced
5.5
10.0

1st-half shots on target
2.0
1.8

2nd-half shots on target
2.0
1.5

1st-half on target faced
1.8
2.5

2nd-half on target faced
2.8
3.3

Matches
4
4
Last six league matches
Statistic
Troyes
Le Mans
Shots per game
14.8
10.8

Shots faced per game
11.5
13.5

Shots on target per game
3.0
3.3

On target faced per game
4.8
4.7

1st-half shots
6.0
4.7

2nd-half shots
9.0
6.0

1st-half shots faced
5.7
4.8

2nd-half shots faced
5.8
8.7

Matches
6
6
Last six at home and away
Statistic
Troyes
Le Mans
Shots per game
13.2
·

Shots faced per game
13.5
·

Shots on target per game
3.7
·

On target faced per game
5.0
·

Matches
6
·

League average per match: 26.8 shots, 9.4 on target, 12.2 in the 1st half, 14.7 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 13,109 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 57.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 53.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 66.3% for over 22.5 to 30.3% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.9%. Head to head on shots, Troyes are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.5%, with a level count at 5.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Troyes over 12.5 shots sits at 59.1% and Le Mans at 38.3%. This season Troyes have averaged 13.6 shots a game and Le Mans 10.6. Troyes take 6.1 shots before half-time and 7.6 after, Le Mans 5.4 and 5.1.

53.9%Over 24.5 shots
61.5%Most shots: Troyes
59.1%Troyes over 12.5 shots
38.3%Le Mans over 12.5 shots
64.4%Over 7.5 on target

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.9% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderTroyes are the pick to have more shots at 61.5%, shot volume follows the side that keeps the ball in the final third.
The Clock WatcherTroyes average 6.1 shots in the first half and 7.6 in the second, so their volume builds as the game opens up.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 24.5 shots: over sits at 53.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in Troyes vs Le Mans?
The model expects about 13.8 shots for Troyes and 11.5 for Le Mans, 25.4 in total, and rates over 24.5 total shots at 53.9%.
How many shots on target in Troyes vs Le Mans?
The model expects about 4.9 shots on target for Troyes and 4.0 for Le Mans, and rates over 7.5 shots on target at 64.4%.
Which team will have more shots in Troyes vs Le Mans?
The model rates Troyes to take more shots at 61.5%.
How many shots do Le Mans take away from home?
Le Mans have taken 10.5 shots per game and faced 16.3 across 4 recorded away league matches this season.
Do Troyes shoot more in the first or second half?
Troyes average 6.1 shots before half-time and 7.6 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.