AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
StrasbourgStrasbourgDLLLL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1114:00UK10°C · Cloudy
AuxerreAuxerreWWLWD

Strasbourg vs Auxerre cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.6%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards48.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Strasbourg vs Auxerre. The model leans toward Strasbourg for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 69.8% 30.2%
3.5 cards 48.6% 51.4%
4.5 cards 29.5% 70.5%
5.5 cards 15.7% 84.3%

Who picks up more cards

Strasbourg
39.5%
Level
21.9%
Auxerre
38.6%

Team cards lines

Strasbourg

Over 1.5
54.1%
Over 2.5
27.3%

Auxerre

Over 1.5
53.5%
Over 2.5
26.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Strasbourg's; Auxerre gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Strasbourg line Strasbourg Auxerre
-1.5 20.8% 79.2%
-0.5 39.5% 60.5%
+0.5 61.4% 38.6%
+1.5 79.8% 20.2%

Red card

Any red card16.0%
Strasbourg red card8.9%
Auxerre red card7.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 74.9% 25.1%
22.5 fouls 61.6% 38.4%
24.5 fouls 47.2% 52.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Strasbourg R. Buquet 2 4.0 3.0
Auxerre Willy Delajod 2 3.5 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

StrasbourgStrasbourg

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Strasbourg at home and Auxerre away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AuxerreAuxerre
Statistic
Strasbourg
Auxerre
Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.2

Matches with more cards than the opponent
60.0%
·

Matches with card data
5
3
Red cards this season
1
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 48.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.8% for over 2.5 to 15.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.6%. Between the two sides, Strasbourg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.5%, with a level count at 21.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Strasbourg over 1.5 cards sits at 54.1% and Auxerre at 53.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.0% (Strasbourg 8.9%, Auxerre 7.7%). Strasbourg’s most frequent referee this season, R. Buquet, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

48.6%Over 3.5 cards
16.0%Any red card
39.5%Most cards: Strasbourg
54.1%Strasbourg over 1.5 cards
53.5%Auxerre over 1.5 cards
61.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherR. Buquet, Strasbourg’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianStrasbourg are the pick to collect more cards at 39.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
StrasbourgStrasbourg

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AuxerreAuxerre
Statistic
Strasbourg
Auxerre
cards per game
2.0
·

fouls per game
12.0
15.1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.6% for Strasbourg vs Auxerre.
Will there be a red card in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
The model rates Strasbourg to pick up more cards at 39.5%, with a level count at 21.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 1Strasbourg fixtures and statsAuxerre fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.