AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
LilleLilleWLWDD
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1020:05UK9°C · Clear
LensLensDLWWW

Lille vs Lens cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lille vs Lens. Slightly more cards are projected for Lens for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.8% 25.2%
3.5 cards 54.9% 45.1%
4.5 cards 35.3% 64.7%
5.5 cards 20.1% 79.9%

Who picks up more cards

Lille
35.5%
Level
20.9%
Lens
43.6%

Team cards lines

Lille

Over 1.5
55.2%
Over 2.5
28.3%

Lens

Over 1.5
61.0%
Over 2.5
33.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lille's; Lens gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lille line Lille Lens
-1.5 18.5% 81.5%
-0.5 35.5% 64.5%
+0.5 56.4% 43.6%
+1.5 75.3% 24.7%

Red card

Any red card29.5%
Lille red card12.7%
Lens red card19.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.3% 22.8%
22.5 fouls 64.5% 35.5%
24.5 fouls 50.4% 49.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Lens Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj 2 4.5 2.5
Lens M. Vernice 2 4.5 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

LilleLille

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lille at home and Lens away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LensLens
Statistic
Lille
Lens
Cards per game at this venue
1.5
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.5
·

Yellow cards per game
1.6
2.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.1
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.5
1.6

Matches with more cards than the opponent
37.5%
40.0%

Matches with card data
8
5
Red cards this season
1
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 54.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.8% for over 2.5 to 20.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.9%. Head to head on cards, Lens are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 20.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Lille over 1.5 cards sits at 55.2% and Lens at 61.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 29.5% (Lille 12.7%, Lens 19.3%). Lens’s most frequent referee this season, Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Lille have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Lens 2.6.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

54.9%Over 3.5 cards
29.5%Any red card
43.6%Most cards: Lens
55.2%Lille over 1.5 cards
61.0%Lens over 1.5 cards
64.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherHakim Ben el Salem Hadj, Lens’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 29.5%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianLens are the pick to collect more cards at 43.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
LilleLille

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LensLens
Statistic
Lille
Lens
cards per game
1.8
2.6

fouls per game
11.9
12.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Lille vs Lens?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 54.9% for Lille vs Lens.
Will there be a red card in Lille vs Lens?
The model rates a red card for either side at 29.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lille vs Lens?
The model rates Lens to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 1, Cards

Le Havre vs PSG cards predictionNice vs Rennes cards predictionLorient vs Brest cards predictionLyon vs Angers cards predictionTroyes vs Le Mans cards predictionStrasbourg vs Auxerre cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 1Lille fixtures and statsLens fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.