Premier League
Chelsea vs 
Bournemouth Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 59.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Chelsea have averaged 2.0 scored and 2.4 conceded, Bournemouth 1.2 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 59.5% for over 2.5 and 81.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Chelsea have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Bournemouth in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.9% | 5.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 81.8% | 18.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| 3.5 goals | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 19.9% | 80.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 9.3% | 90.8% |
Team goal lines
80.4%
48.4%
22.4%
76.7%
42.7%
18.0%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.6% | 82.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 22.7% | 77.3% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Chelsea goals scored per game2.4Chelsea goals conceded per game100.0%Chelsea Over 2.5 rate1.4Chelsea 1st-half goals per game1.2Bournemouth goals scored per game1.6Bournemouth goals conceded per game60.0%Bournemouth Over 2.5 rate1.0Bournemouth 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
62.1%Both Teams to Score59.5%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 59.5% for three or more goals and 81.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Chelsea favoured at 42.5%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Chelsea to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Chelsea 2 · 3 draws · Bournemouth 0 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 59.5% for Chelsea vs Bournemouth.
Will there be a first-half goal in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 76.3%.
How often have Chelsea gone over 2.5 recently?
Chelsea have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Bournemouth in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,322 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
