Premier League
Arsenal vs 
Leeds Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 53.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Arsenal have averaged 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Leeds 1.4 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 46.6% for over 2.5 and 72.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. Arsenal have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Leeds in 1 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.5% | 8.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 74.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 11.4% | 88.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.5% | 95.5% |
Team goal lines
81.9%
51.0%
24.6%
56.2%
20.1%
5.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 76.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 6.5% | 93.5% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.7% | 80.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Arsenal goals scored per game0.8Arsenal goals conceded per game60.0%Arsenal Over 2.5 rate0.6Arsenal 1st-half goals per game1.4Leeds goals scored per game0.6Leeds goals conceded per game20.0%Leeds Over 2.5 rate0.8Leeds 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
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4
5+
In-depth analysis
46.6%Both Teams to Score46.6%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 46.6% for three or more goals and 72.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Arsenal favoured at 59.5%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Arsenal to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Arsenal 5 · 0 draws · Leeds 0 · 3.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal vs Leeds?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 46.6% for Arsenal vs Leeds.
Will there be a first-half goal in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 59.9%.
How often have Arsenal gone over 2.5 recently?
Arsenal have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Leeds in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,782 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
