Premier League
Sunderland vs 
Brighton Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 52.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Sunderland have averaged 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded, Brighton 3.2 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 52.7% for over 2.5 and 77.2% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 0.5 goals a game. Sunderland have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Brighton in 4 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 15.0% | 85.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 6.4% | 93.6% |
Team goal lines
71.1%
35.3%
13.0%
78.5%
45.6%
20.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.4% | 27.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.0% | 86.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.0% | 22.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.4% | 80.6% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Sunderland goals scored per game2.0Sunderland goals conceded per game40.0%Sunderland Over 2.5 rate0.6Sunderland 1st-half goals per game3.2Brighton goals scored per game1.0Brighton goals conceded per game80.0%Brighton Over 2.5 rate1.6Brighton 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
56.4%Both Teams to Score52.7%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 52.7% for three or more goals and 77.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Brighton favoured at 43.6%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Brighton to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sunderland 0 · 1 draws · Brighton 1 · 0.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sunderland vs Brighton?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 52.7% for Sunderland vs Brighton.
Will there be a first-half goal in Sunderland vs Brighton?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 72.4%.
How often have Sunderland gone over 2.5 recently?
Sunderland have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Brighton in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,322 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
