AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 5 Nov 2026

Bundesliga
HoffenheimHoffenheimLLWWL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1118:30UK8°C · Clearing
Schalke 04Schalke 04DLLDL

Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Hoffenheim2.02

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Schalke 041.03

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Hoffenheim have created 2.02 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Schalke 04 have created 1.03 xG and scored 0.67 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

HoffenheimHoffenheim

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

Schalke 04Schalke 04
Statistic
Hoffenheim
Schalke 04
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
2.02
1.03

xG conceded per game
1.33
1.82

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

HoffenheimHoffenheimLast 5
L
Loss · 1-3
L
Loss · 2-3
W
Win · 2-1
W
Win · 3-0
L
Loss · 0-2

2 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses

Schalke 04Schalke 04Last 5
D
Draw · 0-0
L
Loss · 1-2
L
Loss · 0-1
D
Draw · 0-0
L
Loss · 0-2

0 wins · 2 draws · 3 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3HoffenheimHoffenheim wins
1Draws
1Schalke 04Schalke 04 wins
3.4Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
HoffenheimHoffenheim
2 – 0
Schalke 04Schalke 04
Schalke 04Schalke 04
0 – 3
HoffenheimHoffenheim
HoffenheimHoffenheim
4 – 2
Schalke 04Schalke 04
Schalke 04Schalke 04
4 – 0
HoffenheimHoffenheim
Schalke 04Schalke 04
1 – 1
HoffenheimHoffenheim

Match outlook

PickHoffenheim67.1%
Draw16.6%
Schalke 0416.3%

The model leans Hoffenheim to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0095Calibration error (1X2)
48.0%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
59,418Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 5 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

67.1%Favoured: Hoffenheim
61.7%Both Teams to Score
67.4%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

HoffenheimHoffenheim (1)
Adam Hlozek
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
24.7%
4.05
1+ shot on target
55.6%
1.80
2+ shots
62.6%
1.60
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.22
On target1.23
Goals0.43
Schalke 04Schalke 04 (1)
Adil Aouchiche
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
11.7%
8.55
1+ shot on target
39.6%
2.53
2+ shots
48.4%
2.07
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots1.97
On target0.61
Goals0.15

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaHoffenheim fixtures and statsSchalke 04 fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.