HoffenheimHoffenheimLLWWL
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Schalke 04Schalke 04DLLDLHoffenheim vs Schalke 04 cards prediction
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards47.9%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04. The model leans toward Hoffenheim for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.3% | 30.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.2% | 84.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Hoffenheim
Schalke 04Team cards lines
Hoffenheim
Schalke 04
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Hoffenheim's; Schalke 04 gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Hoffenheim line | Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| -0.5 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| +0.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| +1.5 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 44.8% | 55.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 33.2% | 66.8% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Hoffenheim at home and Schalke 04 away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,741 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 5 Nov 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 47.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.3% for over 2.5 to 15.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.9%. On the card count, Hoffenheim are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 22.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards sits at 54.8% and Schalke 04 at 51.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.5% (Hoffenheim 16.2%, Schalke 04 8.8%).
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?
Will there be a red card in Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?
Which team will pick up more cards in Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
