AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Bundesliga
DortmundDortmundWDDWD
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1114:30UK9°C · Cloudy
ElversbergElversbergDLWLW

Dortmund vs Elversberg xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Dortmund1.87

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Elversberg1.34

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Dortmund have created 1.87 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Elversberg have created 1.34 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

DortmundDortmund

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

ElversbergElversberg
Statistic
Dortmund
Elversberg
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.87
1.34

xG conceded per game
1.23
2.38

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

DortmundDortmundLast 5
W
Win · 1-0
D
Draw · 2-2
D
Draw · 0-0
W
Win · 1-0
D
Draw · 2-2

2 wins · 3 draws · 0 losses

ElversbergElversbergLast 5
D
Draw · 0-0
L
Loss · 0-1
W
Win · 4-3
L
Loss · 0-4
W
Win · 4-1

2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

No recorded head-to-head results available.

Match outlook

PickDortmund75.3%
Draw16.5%
Elversberg8.2%

The model leans Dortmund to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.8%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,049Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

75.3%Favoured: Dortmund
53.3%Both Teams to Score
65.1%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

DortmundDortmund (1)
Serhou Guirassy
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
43.6%
2.29
1+ shot on target
70.4%
1.42
2+ shots
75.5%
1.32
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.09
On target1.38
Goals0.65
ElversbergElversberg (1)
David Mokwa
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
18.1%
5.52
1+ shot on target
45.1%
2.22
2+ shots
30.1%
3.32
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots1.65
On target0.90
Goals0.30

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaDortmund fixtures and statsElversberg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.