AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Bundesliga
MainzMainzWLWLL
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1114:30UK
Bayern MunichBayern MunichWDWWD

Mainz vs Bayern Munich xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Mainz2.21

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Bayern Munich3.92

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Mainz have created 2.21 xG and scored 2.00 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Bayern Munich have created 3.92 xG and scored 3.67 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

MainzMainz

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

Bayern MunichBayern Munich
Statistic
Mainz
Bayern Munich
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
2.21
3.92

xG conceded per game
2.01
0.93

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–4 · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

MainzMainzLast 5
W
Win · 4-3
L
Loss · 3-4
W
Win · 1-0
L
Loss · 2-3
L
Loss · 1-4

2 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses

Bayern MunichBayern MunichLast 5
W
Win · 7-0
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 6-1
W
Win · 3-1
D
Draw · 2-2

3 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1MainzMainz wins
1Draws
3Bayern MunichBayern Munich wins
5.2Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
MainzMainz
3 – 4
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
2 – 2
MainzMainz
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
3 – 0
MainzMainz
MainzMainz
2 – 1
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
Bayern MunichBayern Munich
8 – 1
MainzMainz

Match outlook

Mainz18.4%
Draw16.6%
PickBayern Munich65.0%

The model leans Bayern Munich to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.8%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,049Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

65.0%Favoured: Bayern Munich
70.1%Both Teams to Score
75.3%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

MainzMainz (1)
Sheraldo Becker
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
15.2%
6.58
1+ shot on target
52.5%
1.90
2+ shots
42.3%
2.36
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.54
On target1.31
Goals0.29
Bayern MunichBayern Munich (1)
Harry Kane
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
60.1%
1.66
1+ shot on target
84.1%
1.19
2+ shots
89.6%
1.12
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots4.52
On target2.16
Goals1.08

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)

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Related

BundesligaMainz fixtures and statsBayern Munich fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.