Bundesliga
StuttgartStuttgartLWLLW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1117:30UK5°C · Cloudy
Werder BremenWerder BremenWDDWW

Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Stuttgart2.27

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Werder Bremen1.87

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Stuttgart have created 2.27 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Werder Bremen have created 1.87 xG and scored 2.17 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

StuttgartStuttgart

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Statistic
Stuttgart
Werder Bremen
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
2.27
1.87

xG conceded per game
2.27
1.56

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

StuttgartStuttgartLast 5
L
Loss · 0-1
W
Win · 2-0
L
Loss · 0-1
L
Loss · 2-3
W
Win · 4-2

2 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses

Werder BremenWerder BremenLast 5
W
Win · 3-2
D
Draw · 2-2
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 3-2
W
Win · 2-0

3 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1StuttgartStuttgart wins
2Draws
2Werder BremenWerder Bremen wins
3.2Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
StuttgartStuttgart
1 – 1
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
0 – 4
StuttgartStuttgart
StuttgartStuttgart
1 – 2
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
2 – 2
StuttgartStuttgart
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
2 – 1
StuttgartStuttgart

Match outlook

PickStuttgart59.7%
Draw18.9%
Werder Bremen21.4%

The model leans Stuttgart to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0102Calibration error (1X2)
47.8%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,177Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

59.7%Favoured: Stuttgart
65.6%Both Teams to Score
68.5%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

StuttgartStuttgart (1)
Deniz Undav
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
34.3%
2.92
1+ shot on target
69.3%
1.44
2+ shots
84.5%
1.18
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots4.28
On target1.52
Goals0.54
Werder BremenWerder Bremen (1)
Niclas Füllkrug
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
22.4%
4.46
1+ shot on target
47.5%
2.11
2+ shots
37.9%
2.64
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.49
On target1.22
Goals0.48

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)

Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.