AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
RB LeipzigRB LeipzigWLWLW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1114:30UK
AugsburgAugsburgDLDLD

RB Leipzig vs Augsburg xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

RB Leipzig2.24

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Augsburg1.79

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

RB Leipzig have created 2.24 xG and scored 2.83 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Augsburg have created 1.79 xG and scored 2.33 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

AugsburgAugsburg
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
2.24
1.79

xG conceded per game
1.92
2.69

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

RB LeipzigRB LeipzigLast 5
W
Win · 5-0
L
Loss · 0-2
W
Win · 6-0
L
Loss · 1-6
W
Win · 4-0

3 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses

AugsburgAugsburgLast 5
D
Draw · 2-2
L
Loss · 2-3
D
Draw · 2-2
L
Loss · 3-4
D
Draw · 1-1

0 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3RB LeipzigRB Leipzig wins
2Draws
0AugsburgAugsburg wins
3.4Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
2 – 1
AugsburgAugsburg
AugsburgAugsburg
0 – 6
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
AugsburgAugsburg
0 – 0
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
4 – 0
AugsburgAugsburg
AugsburgAugsburg
2 – 2
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

Match outlook

PickRB Leipzig66.3%
Draw16.9%
Augsburg16.9%

The model leans RB Leipzig to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.8%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,049Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

66.3%Favoured: RB Leipzig
68.1%Both Teams to Score
73.6%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

RB LeipzigRB Leipzig (1)
Conrad Harder
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
10.6%
9.43
1+ shot on target
42.5%
2.35
2+ shots
43.3%
2.31
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots4.07
On target1.53
Goals0.31
AugsburgAugsburg (1)
Michael Gregoritsch
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
25.4%
3.94
1+ shot on target
49.6%
2.02
2+ shots
45.5%
2.20
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.99
On target1.33
Goals0.57

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)

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Related

BundesligaRB Leipzig fixtures and statsAugsburg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.