Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Milan59.5%
Win probability · fair 1.68
Top signals
Milan or drawVery likely83.5%Fair 1.20
Over 1.5 goalsLikely72.6%Fair 1.38
Under 2.5 goalsClose call53.2%Fair 1.88
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Milan at 60% against Lecce, Serie A, 20 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) The run in: Milan arrive W3 D2 L1, Lecce W4 D0 L2. 3) Gonçalo Ramos drives the home shot volume, 2.0 on target per 90. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 5 wins for Milan, 0 draws and 0 for Lecce, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals46.8%@ 2.14
Over 9.5 corners42.5%@ 2.35
Draw or Lecce40.5%@ 2.47
Medium risk
Not both teams to score53.2%@ 1.88
Over 8.5 corners52.4%@ 1.91
Random finds
1-0 correct score12.9%@ 7.73
1-1 correct score11.6%@ 8.61
2-0 correct score11.5%@ 8.72
Model vs market
Milan
59.5%
Draw
24.0%
Lecce
16.5%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.6%Fair 1.38
Over 2.5Close call46.8%Fair 2.14
BTTS · YesClose call46.8%Fair 2.14
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call52.4%Fair 1.91
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely42.5%Fair 2.35
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely33.6%Fair 2.98
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot25.9%Fair 3.86
Most cornersMilan56.7%Lecce33.1%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.3%Fair 1.58
Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.3%Fair 1.95
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.6%Fair 2.53
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot28.9%Fair 3.46
Recent shot volume
Milan13.0 taken12.5 faced
Lecce9.3 taken16.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Milan (4 games)
7.0 / 6.5
Lecce (4 games)
3.5 / 5.5
Totals line guide
0.5·1.572.6%2.546.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
MilanLWWDD
LecceWWLLW
Last 5 meetings: Milan 5 · 0 draws · Lecce 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Gonçalo RamosMilan · key player
To score26.5%3.77
1+ on target67.0%1.49
2+ shots67.1%1.49
Shots/90 4.27SoT/90 2.05Goals/90 0.57
Willem GeubbelsLecce · key player
To score17.4%5.75
1+ on target32.1%3.12
2+ shots34.8%2.87
Shots/90 2.51SoT/90 0.79Goals/90 0.39
Christian PulisicMilan · in form
To score24.4%4.10
1+ on target52.3%1.91
2+ shots50.8%1.97
Shots/90 2.44SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.4
Konan N’DriLecce · in form
To score4.6%21.74
1+ on target15.4%6.49
2+ shots16.9%5.92
Shots/90 2.95SoT/90 0.67Goals/90 0.19
Samuel ChukwuezeMilan · in form
To score11.2%8.93
1+ on target30.3%3.30
2+ shots33.7%2.97
Shots/90 2.53SoT/90 0.76Goals/90 0.25
Medon BerishaLecce · in form
To score7.0%14.29
1+ on target27.3%3.66
2+ shots46.5%2.15
Shots/90 2.61SoT/90 0.53Goals/90 0.12
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Milan win1.73
Draw4.03
Lecce win5.79
Both teams to score2.14
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.38
Over 2.5 goals2.14
Over 3.5 goals3.93
Milan most1.73
Lecce most5.79
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.54
Over 8.5 corners1.86
Over 9.5 corners2.33
Over 10.5 corners3.02
Milan most1.76
Lecce most3.01
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.45
Over 3.5 cards2.05
Over 4.5 cards3.29
Over 5.5 cards5.92
Milan most3.18
Lecce most2.10
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.47
Over 7.5 SoT1.77
Over 8.5 SoT2.21
Over 9.5 SoT2.88
Milan most1.70
Lecce most3.36
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.95
Over 26.5 shots2.53
Over 28.5 shots3.46
Milan most1.53
Lecce most3.44
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.45
Over 22.5 fouls1.80
Over 24.5 fouls2.36
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
63.3%
Over 24.5
51.4%
Over 26.5
39.6%
Over 28.5
28.9%
Most: Milan
65.5%
Most: Lecce
29.0%
Milan Over 13.2
52.2%
Lecce Over 13.2
26.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
68.2%
Over 7.5
56.6%
Over 8.5
45.2%
Over 9.5
34.7%
Most: Milan
59.0%
Most: Lecce
29.8%
Milan Over 4.2
50.4%
Lecce Over 4.2
29.2%
Cards
Over 2.5
69.2%
Over 3.5
48.7%
Over 4.5
30.4%
Most: Milan
31.4%
Most: Lecce
47.7%
Milan Over 1.8
47.0%
Lecce Over 1.8
59.0%
Milan: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Gonçalo Ramos
4.27
2.05
0.57
67.0%
67.1%
26.5%
Christian Pulisic
2.44
1.06
0.4
52.3%
50.8%
24.4%
Samuel Chukwueze
2.53
0.76
0.25
30.3%
33.7%
11.2%
Omari Hutchinson
1.49
0.62
0.09
36.9%
30.3%
6.5%
Adrien Rabiot
1.67
0.59
0.27
42.6%
46.5%
22.4%
Lecce: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Willem Geubbels
2.51
0.79
0.39
32.1%
34.8%
17.4%
Konan N’Dri
2.95
0.67
0.19
15.4%
16.9%
4.6%
Medon Berisha
2.61
0.53
0.12
27.3%
46.5%
7.0%
Nikola Stulic
1.78
0.51
0.19
25.0%
26.5%
10.1%
Mohamed Kaba
1.09
0.41
0
18.9%
10.8%
0.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Milan clean sheet
43.3%
Lecce clean sheet
18.1%
Milan win to nil
34.8%
Lecce win to nil
9.6%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
57.9%
draw
24.8%
away
17.3%
double_chance
1X
82.7%
12
75.2%
X2
42.1%
dnb
home
77.0%
away
23.0%
btts
yes
46.8%
no
53.2%
clean_sheet
home
43.7%
away
18.1%
win_to_nil
home
35.2%
away
9.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1
25.0%
home_by_2
18.0%
home_by_3plus
14.8%
away_by_1
11.8%
away_by_2
4.2%
away_by_3plus
1.3%
correct_score
0-0
8.5%
0-1
6.0%
0-2
2.7%
0-3
0.7%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
12.9%
1-1
11.6%
1-2
4.6%
1-3
1.3%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.0%
2-0
11.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-2
4.0%
2-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
5.5%
3-2
2.3%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
2.8%
4-1
2.4%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
1.0%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.9%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
0.0%
p
12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.5%
under_0.5
8.5%
over_1.5
72.6%
under_1.5
27.4%
over_2.5
46.8%
under_2.5
53.2%
over_3.5
25.5%
under_3.5
74.5%
over_4.5
11.8%
under_4.5
88.2%
over_5.5
4.7%
under_5.5
95.3%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
81.9%
under_0.5
18.1%
over_1.5
51.2%
under_1.5
48.8%
over_2.5
24.9%
under_2.5
75.1%
team_away
over_0.5
56.3%
under_0.5
43.7%
over_1.5
20.2%
under_1.5
79.8%
over_2.5
5.2%
under_2.5
94.8%
most
home
57.9%
draw
24.8%
away
17.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
14.8%
away_+2.5
85.2%
home_-1.5
32.9%
away_+1.5
67.1%
home_-0.5
57.9%
away_+0.5
42.1%
home_+0.5
82.7%
away_-0.5
17.3%
home_+1.5
94.5%
away_-1.5
5.5%
home_+2.5
98.7%
away_-2.5
1.3%
total_exact
exact_0
8.5%
exact_1
18.9%
exact_2
25.8%
exact_3
21.3%
exact_4
13.7%
exact_5
7.0%
exact_6
3.1%
exact_7plus
1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
29.2%
draw
47.0%
away
23.8%
total
over_0.5
62.5%
under_0.5
37.5%
over_1.5
25.7%
under_1.5
74.3%
over_2.5
7.7%
under_2.5
92.3%
btts
yes
14.9%
no
85.1%
total_exact
exact_0
37.5%
exact_1
36.8%
exact_2
18.0%
exact_3
5.9%
exact_4plus
1.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
53.6%
draw
34.8%
away
11.6%
total
over_0.5
74.7%
under_0.5
25.3%
over_1.5
40.0%
under_1.5
60.0%
over_2.5
16.1%
under_2.5
83.9%
btts
yes
18.3%
no
81.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
26.5%
H/D
2.3%
H/A
0.4%
D/H
25.2%
D/D
16.4%
D/A
5.5%
A/H
4.5%
A/D
6.6%
A/A
12.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
64.9%
under_7.5
35.1%
over_8.5
53.8%
under_8.5
46.2%
over_9.5
43.0%
under_9.5
57.0%
over_10.5
33.1%
under_10.5
66.9%
over_11.5
24.6%
under_11.5
75.4%
over_12.5
17.7%
under_12.5
82.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
68.7%
under_3.5
31.3%
over_4.5
54.4%
under_4.5
45.6%
over_5.5
40.9%
under_5.5
59.1%
team_away
over_3.5
52.0%
under_3.5
48.0%
over_4.5
36.5%
under_4.5
63.5%
over_5.5
24.0%
under_5.5
76.0%
most
home
56.8%
draw
10.0%
away
33.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
27.4%
away_+3.5
72.6%
home_-1.5
46.4%
away_+1.5
53.6%
home_-0.5
56.8%
away_+0.5
43.2%
home_+0.5
66.8%
away_-0.5
33.2%
home_+1.5
75.8%
away_-1.5
24.2%
home_+3.5
88.8%
away_-3.5
11.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
63.3%
under_22.5
36.7%
over_24.5
51.3%
under_24.5
48.7%
over_26.5
39.6%
under_26.5
60.4%
over_28.5
28.9%
under_28.5
71.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
75.0%
under_10.5
25.0%
over_12.5
60.0%
under_12.5
40.0%
over_14.5
44.5%
under_14.5
55.5%
team_away
over_10.5
50.6%
under_10.5
49.4%
over_12.5
33.4%
under_12.5
66.6%
over_14.5
20.1%
under_14.5
80.0%
most
home
65.5%
draw
5.5%
away
29.0%
handicap
home_-4.5
41.6%
away_+4.5
58.4%
home_-2.5
53.7%
away_+2.5
46.3%
home_-0.5
65.5%
away_+0.5
34.5%
home_+0.5
71.0%
away_-0.5
29.0%
home_+2.5
80.5%
away_-2.5
19.5%
home_+4.5
87.8%
away_-4.5
12.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
68.2%
under_6.5
31.8%
over_7.5
56.6%
under_7.5
43.4%
over_8.5
45.2%
under_8.5
54.8%
over_9.5
34.7%
under_9.5
65.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
65.6%
under_3.5
34.4%
over_4.5
50.3%
under_4.5
49.7%
over_5.5
36.4%
under_5.5
63.6%
team_away
over_3.5
45.0%
under_3.5
55.0%
over_4.5
29.2%
under_4.5
70.8%
over_5.5
17.6%
under_5.5
82.4%
most
home
59.0%
draw
11.3%
away
29.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
35.6%
away_+2.5
64.4%
home_-0.5
59.0%
away_+0.5
41.0%
home_+0.5
70.2%
away_-0.5
29.8%
home_+2.5
87.2%
away_-2.5
12.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
69.2%
under_2.5
30.8%
over_3.5
48.7%
under_3.5
51.3%
over_4.5
30.4%
under_4.5
69.6%
over_5.5
16.9%
under_5.5
83.1%
odd_even
odd
49.9%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
47.0%
under_1.5
53.0%
over_2.5
22.2%
under_2.5
77.8%
team_away
over_1.5
59.0%
under_1.5
41.0%
over_2.5
33.1%
under_2.5
66.9%
most
home
31.4%
draw
20.9%
away
47.7%
handicap
home_-1.5
15.5%
away_+1.5
84.5%
home_-0.5
31.4%
away_+0.5
68.6%
home_+0.5
52.3%
away_-0.5
47.7%
home_+1.5
72.1%
away_-1.5
27.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
68.9%
under_20.5
31.1%
over_22.5
55.7%
under_22.5
44.3%
over_24.5
42.3%
under_24.5
57.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
65.5%
under_9.5
34.5%
over_11.5
45.9%
under_11.5
54.2%
over_13.5
28.4%
under_13.5
71.6%
team_away
over_9.5
72.6%
under_9.5
27.4%
over_11.5
54.2%
under_11.5
45.8%
over_13.5
36.1%
under_13.5
63.9%
most
home
40.8%
draw
6.8%
away
52.5%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.7%
away_+3.5
77.3%
home_-0.5
40.8%
away_+0.5
59.2%
home_+2.5
61.1%
away_-2.5
38.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
7.1%
no
92.9%
home
yes
4.7%
no
95.3%
away
yes
2.6%
no
97.4%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Serie A
Milan
Lecce