Groningen vs PEC Zwolle prediction & probabilities (2026-09-18)

Eredivisie

Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Both Teams to Score

2026-09-18 · 19:00
Both Teams to Score61.4%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 61.4%A moderate lean, nothing emphatic. Calibrated, not a tip.
61%

model probability

ConvictionModerate

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Both teams to score · Yes at 61.4%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 62.8% for over 2.5 and 83.8% for at least two goals. Groningen have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes61.4%

No38.6%

Over 2.5 · context62.8%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Groningen scored

2.0

Groningen conceded

2.4

Each team to score

Groningen to score86.8%

Groningen 2+ goals60.1%

PEC Zwolle to score70.2%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals34.1%

By half

Both score in 1st half28.8%

Both score in 2nd half30.9%

This season (2026/27)

100.0%Groningen BTTS rate
0.0%Groningen clean sheets
2.0Groningen goals scored per game

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

4.4%

0

11.8%

1

21.1%

2

22.2%

3

18.0%

4

20.7%

5+

In-depth analysis

55.8%Favoured: Groningen
61.4%Both Teams to Score
62.8%Over 2.5 goals

For the goal environment, the model sees 62.8% for three or more goals and 83.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Groningen favoured at 55.8%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 61.4% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianSees an open, higher-tempo game from the 62.8% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutGroningen are the model’s pick on the result at 55.8%, a lean on probability, never on price.

Match outlook

Groningen55.8%

Draw22.3%

PEC Zwolle21.9%

The model leans Groningen to win. See the full prediction →

Form & head-to-head

GroningenWLLDD

Recent trends

GroningenBTTS 5/5Over 2.5 4/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 61.4% for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle.

Will Groningen score against PEC Zwolle?
The model rates Groningen to score at 86.8% and PEC Zwolle to score at 70.2%.

How often have Groningen seen both teams score recently?
Groningen have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,462Matches graded

In 5,771 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 58.9% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 58.8%✓ 59.8%✗ 58.8%✗ 51.5%✓ 51.1%✓ 52.3%✗ 50.5%✗ 58.7%✗ 63.1%✗ 50.1%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Leeds vs Newcastle2026-09-14Yes 58.8%Hit
Villarreal vs Betis2026-09-14Yes 59.8%Hit
Como vs Parma2026-09-14No 58.8%Miss
Torino vs Roma2026-09-14Yes 51.5%Miss
Inter vs Udinese2026-09-14Yes 51.1%Hit

More Eredivisie, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.