Eredivisie
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 64.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.2% for over 22.5 to 42.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.1%. On the shot count, Groningen are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.2%, with a level count at 5.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 42.0% | 58.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.5%
65.1%
50.6%
63.2%
46.9%
32.2%
Shot handicap
| Groningen line | Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| -2.5 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| -0.5 | 60.2% | 39.9% |
| +0.5 | 65.5% | 34.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 74.2% | 25.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 52.8% | 47.2% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.5Groningen shots per game16.2Groningen shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Groningen.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
64.0%Over 24.5 shots65.1%Groningen over 12.5 shots46.9%PEC Zwolle over 12.5 shots74.2%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Groningen over 12.5 shots sits at 65.1% and PEC Zwolle at 46.9%.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 64.0% for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle.
Which team will have more shots in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model rates Groningen to take more shots at 60.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
