Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
ADO Den Haag41.7%
Win probability · fair 2.40
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely83.3%Fair 1.20
ADO Den Haag or drawLikely66.1%Fair 1.51
Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.0%Fair 1.54
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on ADO Den Haag, that gap is the story." Expect a tight one: the model splits ADO Den Haag and Cambuur almost evenly, ADO Den Haag marginally on top at 42%. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 64%. As a promoted side, ADO Den Haag carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners45.4%@ 2.20
Over 11.5 corners36.4%@ 2.75
Cambuur win33.8%@ 2.96
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals61.8%@ 1.62
Draw or Cambuur58.2%@ 1.72
Over 9.5 corners55.1%@ 1.81
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.12
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.35
1-2 correct score7.8%@ 12.76
Model vs market
ADO Den Haag
41.7%
Draw
24.4%
Cambuur
33.8%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely83.3%Fair 1.20
Over 2.5Likely61.8%Fair 1.62
BTTS · YesLikely63.9%Fair 1.56
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.0%Fair 1.54
Over 9.5 cornersClose call55.1%Fair 1.81
Over 10.5 cornersClose call45.4%Fair 2.20
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely36.4%Fair 2.75
Most cornersADO Den Haag54.8%Cambuur35.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 24.5 shotsLikely63.9%Fair 1.56
Over 26.5 shotsClose call53.0%Fair 1.89
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely42.0%Fair 2.38
Recent shot volume
Cambuur12.5 taken15.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.583.3%2.561.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.8%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
ADO Den Haag win2.40
Draw4.10
Cambuur win2.96
Both teams to score1.57
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.62
Over 3.5 goals2.53
Over 4.5 goals4.60
ADO Den Haag most2.40
Cambuur most2.96
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.44
Over 9.5 corners1.73
Over 10.5 corners2.15
ADO Den Haag most1.82
Cambuur most2.83
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.76
Over 3.5 cards2.88
Over 4.5 cards5.46
Over 5.5 cards11.83
ADO Den Haag most3.38
Cambuur most2.14
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.19
Over 7.5 SoT1.32
Over 8.5 SoT1.52
Over 9.5 SoT1.82
ADO Den Haag most2.03
Cambuur most2.52
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.56
Over 26.5 shots1.89
Over 28.5 shots2.38
ADO Den Haag most1.72
Cambuur most2.74
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.76
Over 22.5 fouls2.41
Over 24.5 fouls3.58
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
74.1%
Over 24.5
63.9%
Over 26.5
53.0%
Over 28.5
42.0%
Most: ADO Den Haag
58.1%
Most: Cambuur
36.5%
ADO Den Haag Over 13.2
56.4%
Cambuur Over 13.2
40.8%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
84.3%
Over 7.5
75.7%
Over 8.5
65.6%
Over 9.5
54.8%
Most: ADO Den Haag
49.3%
Most: Cambuur
39.7%
ADO Den Haag Over 4.2
58.3%
Cambuur Over 4.2
51.6%
Cards
Over 2.5
56.7%
Over 3.5
34.7%
Over 4.5
18.3%
Most: ADO Den Haag
29.6%
Most: Cambuur
46.7%
ADO Den Haag Over 1.8
36.8%
Cambuur Over 1.8
49.8%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
ADO Den Haag clean sheet
22.1%
Cambuur clean sheet
18.4%
ADO Den Haag win to nil
17.5%
Cambuur win to nil
13.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
41.8%
draw
24.4%
away
33.8%
double_chance
1X
66.2%
12
75.6%
X2
58.3%
dnb
home
55.2%
away
44.8%
btts
yes
63.9%
no
36.1%
clean_sheet
home
22.3%
away
18.5%
win_to_nil
home
17.6%
away
13.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1
19.9%
home_by_2
12.7%
home_by_3plus
9.2%
away_by_1
17.6%
away_by_2
10.1%
away_by_3plus
6.2%
correct_score
0-0
4.6%
0-1
5.7%
0-2
4.7%
0-3
2.3%
0-4
0.9%
0-5
0.3%
1-0
6.4%
1-1
11.0%
1-2
7.8%
1-3
3.9%
1-4
1.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
5.9%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
6.6%
2-3
3.3%
2-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
3.3%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
3.7%
3-3
1.9%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
1.4%
4-1
2.1%
4-2
1.6%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.2%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.4%
under_0.5
4.6%
over_1.5
83.3%
under_1.5
16.7%
over_2.5
61.8%
under_2.5
38.2%
over_3.5
39.5%
under_3.5
60.5%
over_4.5
21.8%
under_4.5
78.3%
over_5.5
10.4%
under_5.5
89.6%
odd_even
odd
48.9%
even
51.1%
team_home
over_0.5
81.5%
under_0.5
18.5%
over_1.5
50.3%
under_1.5
49.7%
over_2.5
23.9%
under_2.5
76.1%
team_away
over_0.5
77.7%
under_0.5
22.3%
over_1.5
44.3%
under_1.5
55.7%
over_2.5
19.2%
under_2.5
80.8%
most
home
41.8%
draw
24.4%
away
33.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
9.2%
away_+2.5
90.8%
home_-1.5
21.9%
away_+1.5
78.1%
home_-0.5
41.8%
away_+0.5
58.3%
home_+0.5
66.2%
away_-0.5
33.8%
home_+1.5
83.8%
away_-1.5
16.2%
home_+2.5
93.8%
away_-2.5
6.2%
total_exact
exact_0
4.6%
exact_1
12.1%
exact_2
21.5%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
17.8%
exact_5
11.3%
exact_6
6.0%
exact_7plus
4.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
57.1%
draw
28.8%
away
14.0%
total
over_0.5
83.7%
under_0.5
16.3%
over_1.5
54.2%
under_1.5
45.8%
over_2.5
27.4%
under_2.5
72.7%
btts
yes
28.7%
no
71.3%
total_exact
exact_0
16.3%
exact_1
29.5%
exact_2
26.8%
exact_3
16.2%
exact_4plus
11.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
37.7%
draw
29.9%
away
32.4%
total
over_0.5
87.7%
under_0.5
12.3%
over_1.5
62.0%
under_1.5
38.0%
over_2.5
35.0%
under_2.5
65.0%
btts
yes
42.1%
no
57.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
45.2%
H/D
7.7%
H/A
4.2%
D/H
10.9%
D/D
8.6%
D/A
9.4%
A/H
1.8%
A/D
2.8%
A/A
9.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
79.3%
under_7.5
20.7%
over_8.5
69.2%
under_8.5
30.8%
over_9.5
58.0%
under_9.5
42.0%
over_10.5
46.5%
under_10.5
53.6%
over_11.5
35.6%
under_11.5
64.4%
over_12.5
26.1%
under_12.5
73.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.0%
under_3.5
23.0%
over_4.5
63.3%
under_4.5
36.7%
over_5.5
49.0%
under_5.5
51.0%
team_away
over_3.5
64.6%
under_3.5
35.4%
over_4.5
48.5%
under_4.5
51.5%
over_5.5
33.9%
under_5.5
66.1%
most
home
55.0%
draw
9.6%
away
35.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.9%
away_+3.5
73.1%
home_-1.5
45.1%
away_+1.5
54.9%
home_-0.5
55.0%
away_+0.5
45.0%
home_+0.5
64.6%
away_-0.5
35.4%
home_+1.5
73.4%
away_-1.5
26.6%
home_+3.5
86.9%
away_-3.5
13.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
74.1%
under_22.5
25.9%
over_24.5
63.9%
under_24.5
36.1%
over_26.5
53.0%
under_26.5
47.0%
over_28.5
42.0%
under_28.5
58.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
77.4%
under_10.5
22.6%
over_12.5
63.7%
under_12.5
36.3%
over_14.5
49.0%
under_14.5
51.0%
team_away
over_10.5
64.6%
under_10.5
35.4%
over_12.5
48.5%
under_12.5
51.5%
over_14.5
33.7%
under_14.5
66.4%
most
home
58.1%
draw
5.4%
away
36.6%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.9%
away_+4.5
64.1%
home_-2.5
46.9%
away_+2.5
53.1%
home_-0.5
58.1%
away_+0.5
41.9%
home_+0.5
63.4%
away_-0.5
36.6%
home_+2.5
73.4%
away_-2.5
26.6%
home_+4.5
81.7%
away_-4.5
18.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
84.3%
under_6.5
15.7%
over_7.5
75.7%
under_7.5
24.3%
over_8.5
65.6%
under_8.5
34.4%
over_9.5
54.8%
under_9.5
45.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
73.3%
under_3.5
26.7%
over_4.5
58.3%
under_4.5
41.7%
over_5.5
43.4%
under_5.5
56.6%
team_away
over_3.5
67.7%
under_3.5
32.3%
over_4.5
51.6%
under_4.5
48.4%
over_5.5
36.6%
under_5.5
63.4%
most
home
49.3%
draw
11.0%
away
39.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.4%
away_+2.5
71.6%
home_-0.5
49.3%
away_+0.5
50.7%
home_+0.5
60.3%
away_-0.5
39.7%
home_+2.5
79.3%
away_-2.5
20.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
56.7%
under_2.5
43.3%
over_3.5
34.7%
under_3.5
65.3%
over_4.5
18.3%
under_4.5
81.7%
over_5.5
8.5%
under_5.5
91.6%
odd_even
odd
49.8%
even
50.2%
team_home
over_1.5
36.8%
under_1.5
63.2%
over_2.5
14.2%
under_2.5
85.8%
team_away
over_1.5
49.8%
under_1.5
50.2%
over_2.5
24.0%
under_2.5
76.0%
most
home
29.6%
draw
23.8%
away
46.7%
handicap
home_-1.5
12.8%
away_+1.5
87.2%
home_-0.5
29.6%
away_+0.5
70.4%
home_+0.5
53.3%
away_-0.5
46.7%
home_+1.5
75.1%
away_-1.5
24.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
56.7%
under_20.5
43.3%
over_22.5
41.5%
under_22.5
58.5%
over_24.5
27.9%
under_24.5
72.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
57.6%
under_9.5
42.4%
over_11.5
35.9%
under_11.5
64.1%
over_13.5
19.1%
under_13.5
80.9%
team_away
over_9.5
65.4%
under_9.5
34.6%
over_11.5
44.1%
under_11.5
55.9%
over_13.5
25.6%
under_13.5
74.4%
most
home
40.3%
draw
7.7%
away
52.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
20.4%
away_+3.5
79.6%
home_-0.5
40.3%
away_+0.5
59.7%
home_+2.5
63.3%
away_-2.5
36.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
13.1%
no
86.9%
home
yes
9.7%
no
90.3%
away
yes
3.7%
no
96.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Eredivisie
Cambuur