Eredivisie
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 55.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 79.8% for over 7.5 to 26.9% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.3%. Between the two sides, Groningen are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.7%, with a level count at 9.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 26.9% | 73.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
78.2%
64.9%
50.7%
63.8%
47.6%
33.0%
Corner handicap
| Groningen line | Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| -1.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| -0.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| +0.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
This season (2026/27)
4.3Groningen corners won per game4.7Groningen corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Groningen.
In-depth analysis
58.7%Over 9.5 corners64.9%Groningen over 4.5 corners47.6%PEC Zwolle over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Groningen over 4.5 corners sits at 64.9% and PEC Zwolle at 47.6%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 58.7% for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle.
Which team will win the corner count in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model rates Groningen to win the corner count at 56.7%, with a level count at 9.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,756 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
