Eredivisie
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 10.1% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 62.9% for over 2.5 and 83.9% for at least two goals. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
| 1-0 | 7.5% |
| 3-1 | 6.6% |
| 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 1-2 | 5.8% |
| 3-0 | 5.5% |
Score probability grid
| Groningen \ PEC Zwolle | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 7% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 6% | 7% | 4% | 2% | · | · |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Groningen goals, columns = PEC Zwolle. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.1%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
61.4%Both Teams to Score62.9%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 62.9% for three or more goals and 83.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Groningen favoured at 56.2%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model's most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle is 1-1 at 10.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
