Groningen vs PEC Zwolle prediction & probabilities (2026-09-18)

By /
Eredivisie

Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Double Chance

2026-09-18 · 19:00
Double Chance78.4%Home or Draw

Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.

Result

Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle
Groningen or Draw

The highest-probability cover, Groningen or Draw (78.4%), landed.

Best predictionHome or Draw · 78.4%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.
78%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Home or Draw at 78.4%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Groningen are favoured at 56.2%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.

Double Chance

★ Top coverGroningen or Draw78.4%

Draw or PEC Zwolle43.8%

Groningen or PEC Zwolle77.8%

Draw no bet

Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.

Groningen72.2%

PEC Zwolle27.8%

Winning margin

Margin Probability
Groningen by 1 22.2%
Groningen by 2 17.2%
Groningen by 3+ 16.8%
PEC Zwolle by 1 12.9%
PEC Zwolle by 2 6.0%
PEC Zwolle by 3+ 2.7%
Draw 22.2%

Goal handicap

Groningen line Groningen PEC Zwolle
-2.5 16.8% 83.2%
-1.5 34.0% 66.0%
-0.5 56.2% 43.8%
+0.5 78.4% 21.6%

This season (2026/27)

2.0Groningen goals scored per game
2.2Groningen goals conceded per game

Double chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Groningen or draw on the model numbers.

In-depth analysis

56.2%Favoured: Groningen
61.4%Both Teams to Score
62.9%Over 2.5 goals

Reading the match, Groningen are favoured at 56.2%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 78.4% on Double Chance, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianSees an open, higher-tempo game from the 62.9% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutGroningen are the model’s pick on the result at 56.2%, a lean on probability, never on price.

Form & head-to-head

GroningenWLLDD

FAQ

Which double chance landed in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 78.4%; it landed, final score 3-0.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Double Chance accuracy

How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

75.8%Best Double Chance call, hit rate
0.0097Calibration error
55,473Matches graded

In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Double Chance calls

The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 80.4%✓ 74.9%✓ 80.9%✓ 71.6%✓ 94.1%✓ 79.6%✗ 72.4%✓ 76.5%✓ 88.2%✗ 79.1%
8 of 10 recent calls hit.
Betis vs Getafe2026-09-17Home or Draw 80.4%Hit
Malaga vs Villarreal2026-09-17Home or Away 74.9%Hit
Ath Madrid vs Osasuna2026-09-16Home or Draw 80.9%Hit
La Coruna vs Sevilla2026-09-16Home or Away 71.6%Hit
Barcelona vs Santander2026-09-16Home or Draw 94.1%Hit

More Eredivisie, Double Chance

Den Haag vs CambuurSparta Rotterdam vs HeerenveenAjax vs ExcelsiorWillem II vs For SittardFeyenoord vs UtrechtAZ Alkmaar vs Telstar

Related

EredivisieGroningenPEC ZwolleTrack record

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.