Groningen vs PEC Zwolle: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

Eredivisie

Groningen

WLLDD

Fri, 18 Sep 202619:00UK

PEC Zwolle

Model’s top convictions

84%

Over 1.5 goals

78%

Groningen or draw

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Groningen55.8%

Win probability · fair 1.79

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely83.8%Fair 1.19

Groningen or drawVery likely78.1%Fair 1.28

Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.5%Fair 1.53

Model read

Groningen go into this Eredivisie meeting with PEC Zwolle on 18 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 56%. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 63% with both teams to score at 61%. PEC Zwolle are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners46.1%@ 2.17

Draw or PEC Zwolle44.2%@ 2.26

Over 11.5 corners37.1%@ 2.70

Medium risk

Both teams to score61.4%@ 1.63

Over 9.5 corners55.7%@ 1.80

Random finds

1-1 correct score10.1%@ 9.89

2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.25

2-0 correct score8.1%@ 12.38

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Groningen

55.8%

Draw

22.3%

PEC Zwolle

21.9%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely83.8%Fair 1.19

Over 2.5Likely62.8%Fair 1.59

BTTS · YesLikely61.4%Fair 1.63

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.5%Fair 1.53

Over 9.5 cornersClose call55.7%Fair 1.80

Over 10.5 cornersClose call46.1%Fair 2.17

Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely37.1%Fair 2.70

Most cornersGroningen56.5%PEC Zwolle33.8%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely73.9%Fair 1.35

Over 24.5 shotsLikely63.7%Fair 1.57

Over 26.5 shotsClose call52.8%Fair 1.89

Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely41.8%Fair 2.39

Recent shot volume

Groningen14.5 taken16.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.8%2.562.8%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 2.562.8%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

GroningenWLLDD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

GroningenPEC Zwolle

League position#9 of 22#22 of 22

Record W-D-L2-2-20-0-1

Current streakD2L1

Points per game1.33·

Record, home vs away1-1-1·

PPG, home vs away1.33·

Goals scored per game2.00·

Goals conceded per game2.17·

Scored, home vs away2.00·

Conceded, home vs away2.00·

1st half goals per game1.50·

2nd half goals per game0.50·

Corners won per game4.3·

Cards per game1.0·

Fouls per game8.5·

Red cards this season0·

Shots per game14.5·

Shots faced per game16.2·

Shots on target per game5.2·

Over 2.5 rate

83.3%·

BTTS rate

100.0%·

Clean sheets

0.0%·

Rates this season:GroningenPEC Zwolle

League averages this season: 3.93 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 79% · BTTS in 71%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Groningen win1.79

Draw4.48

PEC Zwolle win4.57

Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.19

Over 2.5 goals1.59

Over 3.5 goals2.46

Over 4.5 goals4.42

Groningen most1.79

PEC Zwolle most4.57

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25

Over 8.5 corners1.43

Over 9.5 corners1.70

Over 10.5 corners2.12

Groningen most1.76

PEC Zwolle most2.95

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.83

Over 3.5 cards3.07

Over 4.5 cards6.00

Over 5.5 cards13.42

Groningen most3.28

PEC Zwolle most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.21

Over 7.5 SoT1.35

Over 8.5 SoT1.58

Over 9.5 SoT1.90

Groningen most2.02

PEC Zwolle most2.54

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35

Over 24.5 shots1.57

Over 26.5 shots1.89

Over 28.5 shots2.39

Groningen most1.67

PEC Zwolle most2.87

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.07

Over 22.5 fouls2.99

Over 24.5 fouls4.74

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	73.9%	Over 24.5	63.7%	Over 26.5	52.8%	Over 28.5	41.8%
Most: Groningen	59.8%	Most: PEC Zwolle	34.9%
Groningen Over 13.2	57.4%	PEC Zwolle Over 13.2	39.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	82.9%	Over 7.5	73.9%	Over 8.5	63.5%	Over 9.5	52.5%
Most: Groningen	49.5%	Most: PEC Zwolle	39.4%
Groningen Over 4.2	56.9%	PEC Zwolle Over 4.2	49.7%

Cards

Over 2.5	54.6%	Over 3.5	32.6%	Over 4.5	16.7%
Most: Groningen	30.5%	Most: PEC Zwolle	45.1%
Groningen Over 1.8	36.2%	PEC Zwolle Over 1.8	47.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Groningen clean sheet	29.3%
PEC Zwolle clean sheet	13.1%
Groningen win to nil	24.9%
PEC Zwolle win to nil	8.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	55.8%	draw	22.3%	away	21.9%

double_chance

1X	78.1%	12	77.7%	X2	44.2%

dnb

home	71.9%	away	28.2%

btts

yes	61.4%	no	38.6%

clean_sheet

home	29.8%	away	13.2%

win_to_nil

home	25.4%	away	8.8%

winning_margin

home_by_1	22.2%	home_by_2	17.1%	home_by_3plus	16.6%
away_by_1	13.0%	away_by_2	6.1%	away_by_3plus	2.8%

correct_score

0-0	4.4%	0-1	4.3%	0-2	2.9%
0-3	1.2%	0-4	0.4%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	7.5%	1-1	10.1%	1-2	5.8%
1-3	2.4%	1-4	0.7%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	8.1%	2-1	9.8%	2-2	5.9%
2-3	2.4%	2-4	0.7%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	5.5%	3-1	6.6%	3-2	4.0%
3-3	1.6%	3-4	0.5%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	2.8%	4-1	3.4%	4-2	2.0%
4-3	0.8%	4-4	0.3%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	1.1%	5-1	1.4%	5-2	0.8%
5-3	0.3%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.9%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.1%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.6%	under_0.5	4.4%	over_1.5	83.8%
under_1.5	16.2%	over_2.5	62.8%	under_2.5	37.2%
over_3.5	40.6%	under_3.5	59.4%	over_4.5	22.6%
under_4.5	77.4%	over_5.5	11.0%	under_5.5	89.0%

odd_even

odd	49.0%	even	51.0%

team_home

over_0.5	86.8%	under_0.5	13.2%	over_1.5	60.1%
under_1.5	39.9%	over_2.5	33.1%	under_2.5	66.9%

team_away

over_0.5	70.2%	under_0.5	29.8%	over_1.5	34.1%
under_1.5	65.9%	over_2.5	12.3%	under_2.5	87.8%

most

home	55.8%	draw	22.3%	away	21.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	16.6%	away_+2.5	83.4%	home_-1.5	33.7%
away_+1.5	66.3%	home_-0.5	55.8%	away_+0.5	44.2%
home_+0.5	78.1%	away_-0.5	21.9%	home_+1.5	91.1%
away_-1.5	8.9%	home_+2.5	97.2%	away_-2.5	2.8%

total_exact

exact_0	4.4%	exact_1	11.8%	exact_2	21.1%
exact_3	22.2%	exact_4	18.0%	exact_5	11.6%
exact_6	6.3%	exact_7plus	4.7%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	37.1%	draw	35.8%	away	27.1%

total

over_0.5	78.8%	under_0.5	21.2%	over_1.5	45.9%
under_1.5	54.1%	over_2.5	20.4%	under_2.5	79.6%

btts

yes	28.8%	no	71.2%

total_exact

exact_0	21.2%	exact_1	32.9%	exact_2	25.5%
exact_3	13.2%	exact_4plus	7.2%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	31.9%	draw	35.0%	away	33.1%

total

over_0.5	80.3%	under_0.5	19.7%	over_1.5	48.2%
under_1.5	51.8%	over_2.5	22.2%	under_2.5	77.8%

btts

yes	30.9%	no	69.1%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	27.9%	H/D	6.2%	H/A	2.9%
D/H	11.4%	D/D	12.5%	D/A	11.8%
A/H	2.2%	A/D	4.7%	A/A	20.3%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	79.8%	under_7.5	20.2%	over_8.5	69.9%
under_8.5	30.1%	over_9.5	58.7%	under_9.5	41.3%
over_10.5	47.3%	under_10.5	52.7%	over_11.5	36.4%
under_11.5	63.6%	over_12.5	26.9%	under_12.5	73.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	78.2%	under_3.5	21.8%	over_4.5	64.9%
under_4.5	35.1%	over_5.5	50.7%	under_5.5	49.3%

team_away

over_3.5	63.8%	under_3.5	36.2%	over_4.5	47.6%
under_4.5	52.4%	over_5.5	33.0%	under_5.5	67.0%

most

home	56.7%	draw	9.5%	away	33.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.5%	away_+3.5	71.5%	home_-1.5	46.8%
away_+1.5	53.2%	home_-0.5	56.7%	away_+0.5	43.3%
home_+0.5	66.1%	away_-0.5	33.9%	home_+1.5	74.7%
away_-1.5	25.3%	home_+3.5	87.6%	away_-3.5	12.4%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	73.9%	under_22.5	26.1%	over_24.5	63.7%
under_24.5	36.3%	over_26.5	52.8%	under_26.5	47.2%
over_28.5	41.8%	under_28.5	58.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	78.1%	under_10.5	21.9%	over_12.5	64.7%
under_12.5	35.3%	over_14.5	50.1%	under_14.5	49.9%

team_away

over_10.5	63.2%	under_10.5	36.8%	over_12.5	47.0%
under_12.5	53.0%	over_14.5	32.3%	under_14.5	67.7%

most

home	59.8%	draw	5.3%	away	34.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	37.6%	away_+4.5	62.4%	home_-2.5	48.7%
away_+2.5	51.3%	home_-0.5	59.8%	away_+0.5	40.2%
home_+0.5	65.1%	away_-0.5	34.9%	home_+2.5	74.8%
away_-2.5	25.2%	home_+4.5	82.9%	away_-4.5	17.1%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	82.9%	under_6.5	17.1%	over_7.5	73.9%
under_7.5	26.1%	over_8.5	63.5%	under_8.5	36.5%
over_9.5	52.5%	under_9.5	47.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	72.1%	under_3.5	27.9%	over_4.5	56.9%
under_4.5	43.1%	over_5.5	42.0%	under_5.5	58.0%

team_away

over_3.5	66.1%	under_3.5	34.0%	over_4.5	49.7%
under_4.5	50.3%	over_5.5	34.8%	under_5.5	65.2%

most

home	49.5%	draw	11.1%	away	39.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	28.4%	away_+2.5	71.6%	home_-0.5	49.5%
away_+0.5	50.5%	home_+0.5	60.6%	away_-0.5	39.4%
home_+2.5	79.7%	away_-2.5	20.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	54.6%	under_2.5	45.4%	over_3.5	32.6%
under_3.5	67.4%	over_4.5	16.7%	under_4.5	83.3%
over_5.5	7.4%	under_5.5	92.6%

odd_even

odd	49.8%	even	50.2%

team_home

over_1.5	36.2%	under_1.5	63.8%	over_2.5	13.8%
under_2.5	86.2%

team_away

over_1.5	47.4%	under_1.5	52.6%	over_2.5	21.9%
under_2.5	78.1%

most

home	30.5%	draw	24.4%	away	45.1%

handicap

home_-1.5	13.1%	away_+1.5	86.9%	home_-0.5	30.5%
away_+0.5	69.5%	home_+0.5	54.9%	away_-0.5	45.1%
home_+1.5	76.7%	away_-1.5	23.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	48.4%	under_20.5	51.6%	over_22.5	33.4%
under_22.5	66.6%	over_24.5	21.1%	under_24.5	78.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	51.2%	under_9.5	48.8%	over_11.5	29.9%
under_11.5	70.1%	over_13.5	14.7%	under_13.5	85.3%

team_away

over_9.5	60.4%	under_9.5	39.6%	over_11.5	38.8%
under_11.5	61.2%	over_13.5	21.2%	under_13.5	78.8%

most

home	39.5%	draw	7.9%	away	52.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	19.2%	away_+3.5	80.8%	home_-0.5	39.5%
away_+0.5	60.5%	home_+2.5	63.2%	away_-2.5	36.8%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	10.3%	no	89.7%

home

yes	5.1%	no	94.9%

away

yes	5.5%	no	94.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Groningen predictions · PEC Zwolle predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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