Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Telstar Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 34.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 56.8% for over 2.5 to 8.4% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.8%. Head to head on cards, Telstar are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 24.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 18.3% | 81.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 8.4% | 91.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
39.2%
15.8%
47.8%
22.2%
Card handicap
| AZ Alkmaar line | AZ Alkmaar | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.5% | 85.5% |
| -0.5 | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| +0.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| +1.5 | 77.5% | 22.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.5% | 70.5% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8AZ Alkmaar cards per game10.3AZ Alkmaar fouls per game1.7Telstar cards per game10.7Telstar fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar. Slightly more cards are projected for Telstar for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
34.7%Over 3.5 cards13.0%Any red card39.2%AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 cards47.8%Telstar over 1.5 cards43.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 cards sits at 39.2% and Telstar at 47.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.0% (AZ Alkmaar 3.7%, Telstar 9.6%). This season AZ Alkmaar have averaged 0.8 cards a game and Telstar 1.7.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 34.7% for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar.
Will there be a red card in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
The model rates Telstar to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 24.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,317 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
