AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Bundesliga
FC KolnFC KolnDLWLD
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1114:30UK8°C · Cloudy
LeverkusenLeverkusenWWWLL

FC Koln vs Leverkusen xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

FC Koln1.73

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Leverkusen1.86

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Koln have created 1.73 xG and scored 0.83 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Leverkusen have created 1.86 xG and scored 2.00 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

FC KolnFC Koln

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

LeverkusenLeverkusen
Statistic
FC Koln
Leverkusen
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.73
1.86

xG conceded per game
1.59
1.90

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

FC KolnFC KolnLast 5
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 1-2
W
Win · 2-1
L
Loss · 0-1
D
Draw · 0-0

1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses

LeverkusenLeverkusenLast 5
W
Win · 2-0
W
Win · 4-3
W
Win · 2-1
L
Loss · 0-3
L
Loss · 2-4

3 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1FC KolnFC Koln wins
0Draws
4LeverkusenLeverkusen wins
2.6Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
FC KolnFC Koln
1 – 2
LeverkusenLeverkusen
LeverkusenLeverkusen
2 – 0
FC KolnFC Koln
FC KolnFC Koln
0 – 2
LeverkusenLeverkusen
LeverkusenLeverkusen
3 – 0
FC KolnFC Koln
LeverkusenLeverkusen
1 – 2
FC KolnFC Koln

Match outlook

FC Koln35.2%
Draw23.6%
PickLeverkusen41.3%

The model leans Leverkusen to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.8%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,049Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

41.3%Favoured: Leverkusen
66.0%Both Teams to Score
64.6%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

FC KolnFC Koln (1)
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
16.3%
6.13
1+ shot on target
34.9%
2.87
2+ shots
26.4%
3.79
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.82
On target1.64
Goals0.68
LeverkusenLeverkusen (1)
Patrik Schick
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
51.5%
1.94
1+ shot on target
70.7%
1.41
2+ shots
75.7%
1.32
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.59
On target1.61
Goals0.95

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaFC Koln fixtures and statsLeverkusen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.