Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
Manchester UnitedMan UtdDDDLL
8°C · Clearing
Aston VillaAston VillaWDWWDMODELS TOP 3
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Early prediction · Model generated .
Our verdict
Road2Sushi's own call on this match: the likeliest result, how confident the model is, its strongest signals and the reasons behind them.
Every percentage is a model estimate and every fair price is 1 divided by that estimate. Neither is a bookmaker offer, and a model call is not a proven edge over the market.
Model pick
Save model pickSaved to my betsTop signals
Model read
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
D
D
D
L
L
0 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses
W
D
W
W
D
3 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Team news
Counts cover every listed player, including those behind Show all players. An unknown status is never counted as available.
Model availability, not a confirmed lineup.
11 listed players
- Out / suspended
- 9
- Doubtful
- 2
- Available
- 0
Player availability
Show all players (11)Show fewer players
Absence contribution
Past contribution, not a change in win probability.
11 listed players
- Out / suspended
- 11
- Doubtful
- 0
- Available
- 0
Player availability
Show all players (11)Show fewer players
Absence contribution
Past contribution, not a change in win probability.
Most likely availability from independent sources. Missing updates do not mean every player is available.
Share of the squad’s expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. This describes past contribution, not a change in win probability.
Odds: model vs bookmaker
Every price for this match in one place: the model's probabilities next to the bookmaker's, the bookmaker's prices with our gap, and the model's own fair odds for each market.
Bookmaker probabilities are de-vigged (the margin is removed) and come from one bookmaker. A gap between the model and that bookmaker is a disagreement, not a proven edge. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not a bookmaker quote.
Model vs market
Model estimates and recorded bookmaker probabilities.
1X2 and Goals: Bet365 prices via API-Football, observed 1 Nov 2026, 17:09 UTC, with the bookmaker margin taken out.
A market probability is the bookmaker's own price with its margin taken out, so the outcomes of each line add up to 100%. A gap from our model is a disagreement, not a proven edge: when we tested 1X2 and goal totals on matches the model had never seen, the bookmaker's closing price was more accurate. For corners, cards and shots we have no such test.
1X2
Goals
Cards
No recorded bookmaker price for this market.
Corners
No recorded bookmaker price for this market.
Shots
No recorded bookmaker price for this market.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (APIF:Pinnacle:4) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Gap is our probability minus the probability the bookmaker price implies (1 divided by the price), in percentage points. Because the price includes the margin, most gaps are negative. Model highlights are outcomes where our probability is at least 15 points higher. A gap is a disagreement, not a proven edge.
Match result · 1X2
Goals · 2.5
Model fair odds
Our published model probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote. Only the supported 1X2 calibration pool is calibrated; other markets retain their model estimates.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Goals
Both teams combined.
Read context
Both teams combined
Over 1.5 · Strongest read · Very likely
Over 2.5 · Close call
BTTS · Yes · Close call
Corners
Both teams combined.
Read context
Both teams combined
Over 7.5 corners · Likely
Over 8.5 corners · Likely
Over 9.5 corners · Close call
Over 10.5 corners · Unlikely
Over 11.5 corners · Unlikely
Over 12.5 corners · Long shot
Most corners
Each team has its own model probability; these outcomes are not renormalised.
52.3%
Fair odds 1.9137.7%
Fair odds 2.65Read context
Each team has its own model probability; these outcomes are not renormalised.
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Shots
Both teams combined.
Read context
Both teams combined
Over 22.5 shots · Likely
Over 24.5 shots · Close call
Over 26.5 shots · Unlikely
Over 28.5 shots · Unlikely
What the model expects
The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines above come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.
| Model expects | Shots | On target |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 14.4 | 5.2 |
| Aston Villa | 11.4 | 3.8 |
| Both teams | 25.8 | 9.0 |
Recorded shots per game
Shots per game over each side's most recent league matches with shot data, and over the most recent matches at the venue of this match: Manchester United at home and Aston Villa away. These are recorded results, not predictions, and a missing value is never shown as zero.
| Last 6 matches | Shots | Faced | On target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 16.8 | 11.7 | 4.0 |
| Aston Villa | 13.0 | 16.3 | 4.0 |
| Manchester United at home | 20.8 | 10.2 | 6.2 |
| Aston Villa away | 13.2 | 16.5 | 3.7 |
Totals line guide
Both teams combined.
Discipline: Fairly priced. Trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).
Read context
Both teams combined. Each bar uses the stored model estimate for that exact total-goals line. Missing estimates are unavailable; they are not zero.
Fair odds are the model’s own probability price, not a published bookmaker offer.
Market explorer
Model probabilities and fair odds.
Each bar is a specific Over selection for both teams combined. Its height is the model probability, on the same 0–100% scale.
Risk describes estimated likelihood, not profitability: low risk at least 62%, medium 48% to under 62%, high below 48%. Colors follow the actual estimate, even when a risk band is missing.
Up to four markets are selected from available model data, prioritising a spread of risk profiles. Fair odds are calculated from the model, not bookmaker prices: 1 divided by probability.
Scores are exact home-away outcomes from zero to five goals per team. Unavailable estimates stay blank; partial inputs are not expanded, inferred or normalised. Scores outside the matrix remain eligible for the top three.
Goals
Cards
Corners
Shots on target
| Goal axes | Home goals | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Away goals 0 | 0-05.9%Fair odds 16.86 | 1-08.5%Fair odds 11.79 | 2-07.6%Fair odds 13.12 | 3-04.3%Fair odds 23.31 | 4-01.8%Fair odds 55.25 | 5-00.6%Fair odds 163.93 |
| Away goals 1 | 0-16.1%Fair odds 16.39 | 1-111.8%Fair odds 8.50 | 2-19.4%Fair odds 10.60 | 3-15.3%Fair odds 18.87 | 4-12.2%Fair odds 44.64 | 5-10.8%Fair odds 131.58 |
| Away goals 2 | 0-24.1%Fair odds 24.21 | 1-27.0%Fair odds 14.39 | 2-25.9%Fair odds 17.09 | 3-23.3%Fair odds 30.49 | 4-21.4%Fair odds 72.46 | 5-20.5%Fair odds 212.77 |
| Away goals 3 | 0-31.7%Fair odds 58.48 | 1-32.9%Fair odds 34.72 | 2-32.4%Fair odds 41.32 | 3-31.4%Fair odds 73.53 | 4-30.6%Fair odds 175.44 | 5-30.2%Fair odds 526.32 |
| Away goals 4 | 0-40.5%Fair odds 188.68 | 1-40.9%Fair odds 112.36 | 2-40.8%Fair odds 133.33 | 3-40.4%Fair odds 238.10 | 4-40.2%Fair odds 555.56 | 5-40.1%Fair odds 1,666.67 |
| Away goals 5 | 0-50.1%Fair odds 769.23 | 1-50.2%Fair odds 454.55 | 2-50.2%Fair odds 526.32 | 3-50.1%Fair odds 1,000.00 | 4-50.0%Fair odds 2,500.00 | 5-50.0%Fair odds 10,000.00 |
Model’s 3 most likely score outcomes
Model probability · Fair odds
Referee
One match referee is shown from an explicitly saved result or a fresh, identity-matched provider fixture. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment. An API listing can change.
The referee’s totals count every completed match with this referee in our data: football-data.co.uk names the referee in English leagues, and API-Football names the referee of the same match (same teams, date and score) in every league from 2025/26. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure.
The team table shows each team’s published history with that same referee only. Matches, team cards per game and match cards per game are separate fields; their available samples can differ. Missing values are not zero. Cards include yellow and red cards in the current historical source.
Referee not confirmed
No referee assignment is confirmed in our data yet. We never guess one from past matches.
Season stats
2026/27 season. Recorded results, not model estimates.
Overview
PPG scale: 0–3 points per game. Each team uses the same scale independently.
Show all season statsHide season stats
Goals
Scale: 0–3 goals or expected goals (xG) per game. Each team uses the same scale independently.
Shooting
Scale: 0–20 shots per game. Each team uses the same scale independently.
Corners & discipline
0–10 corners per game; 0–5 cards per game; 0–20 fouls per game Each team uses the same scale independently.
Goal rates
Scale: 0–100% of recorded matches, not model estimates. Each team uses the same scale independently.
League averages this season: 2.74 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 47.7% · BTTS in 48.9%. Full league tables & stats →
First half / second half
Averages per game in this season’s league matches, split at half-time. Games is the number of each team’s matches with verified half data for that row; below five matches the row stays blank, and a missing value is never a zero.
Corners, shots on target and yellow cards per half come from the data provider’s half-by-half match statistics and are only used when the two halves add up to the full-time count. Cards are split by the minute they were shown, and first-half stoppage time counts as the first half. These are recorded results, not predictions.
In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the shots per half come from a different source than the match shot totals, so the two can differ slightly.
| Per game | 1H | 2H | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scoredScored | 0.29 | 1.14 | 7 |
| Goals concededConceded | 0.43 | 1.00 | 7 |
| Shots | 7.3 | 12.6 | 7 |
| Shots facedOpp. shots | 5.3 | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on targetOn target | 1.7 | 3.3 | 7 |
| Shots on target facedOpp. on target | 2.6 | 1.9 | 7 |
| Corners wonCorners | 1.7 | 4.4 | 7 |
| Corners concededOpp. corners | 1.4 | 2.1 | 7 |
| Yellow cardsYellows | 0.3 | 1.4 | 7 |
| Opponent yellow cardsOpp. yellows | 1.1 | 1.4 | 7 |
| Per game | 1H | 2H | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scoredScored | 0.43 | 0.57 | 7 |
| Goals concededConceded | 0.71 | 0.86 | 7 |
| Shots | 5.6 | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots facedOpp. shots | 6.0 | 9.9 | 7 |
| Shots on targetOn target | 1.9 | 1.3 | 7 |
| Shots on target facedOpp. on target | 2.3 | 2.1 | 7 |
| Corners wonCorners | 2.0 | 1.1 | 7 |
| Corners concededOpp. corners | 2.4 | 1.9 | 7 |
| Yellow cardsYellows | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 |
| Opponent yellow cardsOpp. yellows | 1.4 | 1.7 | 7 |
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
A watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Benjamin Sesko
Marcus Rashford
Matheus Cunha
Nicolas Jackson
Ibrahim Mbaye
Alejandro Garnacho
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 67.5% | Over 24.5 | 56.2% | Over 26.5 | 44.7% | Over 28.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Manchester United | 64.2% | Most: Aston Villa | 30.5% | ||||
| Manchester United Over 10.5 | 76.5% | ||||||
| Manchester United Over 12.5 | 62.4% | ||||||
| Manchester United Over 14.5 | 47.4% | Aston Villa Over 10.5 | 54.7% | Aston Villa Over 12.5 | 37.9% | Aston Villa Over 14.5 | 24.1% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 74.9% | Over 7.5 | 63.8% | Over 8.5 | 52.1% | Over 9.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Manchester United | 59.8% | Most: Aston Villa | 29.0% | ||||
| Manchester United Over 3.5 | 71.2% | ||||||
| Manchester United Over 4.5 | 55.8% | ||||||
| Manchester United Over 5.5 | 41.0% | Aston Villa Over 3.5 | 50.3% | Aston Villa Over 4.5 | 33.3% | Aston Villa Over 5.5 | 20.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 78.0% | Over 3.5 | 59.1% | Over 4.5 | 39.6% | Over 5.5 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Manchester United | 39.3% | Most: Aston Villa | 40.4% | ||||
| Manchester United Over 1.5 | 60.7% | ||||||
| Manchester United Over 2.5 | 33.7% | Aston Villa Over 1.5 | 61.5% | Aston Villa Over 2.5 | 34.4% |
Manchester United: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Sesko |
3 | 1.47 | 0.58 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 32.1% |
| Marcus Rashford |
3.62 | 1.28 | 0.41 | 43.5% | 47.9% | 16.7% |
| Matheus Cunha |
3.42 | 1.27 | 0.39 | 65.9% | 78.4% | 28.1% |
 Bryan Mbeumo |
2.44 | 1.05 | 0.4 | 63.3% | 67.5% | 31.7% |
 Bruno Fernandes |
2.63 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 53.8% | 72.1% | 25.2% |
Aston Villa: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson |
3.17 | 1.43 | 0.48 | 62.5% | 63.8% | 28.0% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye |
2.63 | 1.15 | 0.27 | 39.5% | 31.8% | 11.1% |
| Alejandro Garnacho |
2.89 | 0.84 | 0.16 | 38.9% | 50.4% | 8.9% |
 Ross Barkley |
2.23 | 0.81 | 0.31 | 26.7% | 21.1% | 11.2% |
 Tammy Abraham |
1.83 | 0.64 | 0.32 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Manchester United clean sheet | 28.7% |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 18.5% |
| Manchester United win to nil | 22.8% |
| Aston Villa win to nil | 12.6% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen. This is the raw model spectrum. Its match-result marginal can differ from the published 1X2 above; it does not replace the saved prediction.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 47.3% | draw | 25.1% | away | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 72.4% | 12 | 74.9% | X2 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 63.1% | away | 36.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 58.4% | no | 41.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.0% | away | 18.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 23.0% | away | 12.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.8% | home_by_2 | 14.5% | home_by_3plus | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.9% | away_by_2 | 7.9% | away_by_3plus | 3.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.9% | 0-1 | 6.1% | 0-2 | 4.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.7% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 1-1 | 11.8% | 1-2 | 7.0% |
| 1-3 | 2.9% | 1-4 | 0.9% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 2-1 | 9.4% | 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 4.3% | 3-1 | 5.3% | 3-2 | 3.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 4-1 | 2.2% | 4-2 | 1.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.6% | 5-1 | 0.8% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.1% | under_0.5 | 5.9% | over_1.5 | 79.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 20.5% | over_2.5 | 56.0% | under_2.5 | 44.0% |
| over_3.5 | 33.6% | under_3.5 | 66.4% | over_4.5 | 17.2% |
| under_4.5 | 82.8% | over_5.5 | 7.7% | under_5.5 | 92.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 81.4% | under_0.5 | 18.6% | over_1.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.8% | over_2.5 | 23.9% | under_2.5 | 76.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.0% | under_0.5 | 29.0% | over_1.5 | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.8% | over_2.5 | 13.0% | under_2.5 | 87.1% |
most
| home | 47.3% | draw | 25.1% | away | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.9% | away_+2.5 | 89.1% | home_-1.5 | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 74.6% | home_-0.5 | 47.3% | away_+0.5 | 52.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.4% | away_-0.5 | 27.7% | home_+1.5 | 88.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.7% | home_+2.5 | 96.2% | away_-2.5 | 3.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.9% | exact_1 | 14.6% | exact_2 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.4% | exact_5 | 9.6% |
| exact_6 | 4.7% | exact_7plus | 3.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.9% | draw | 43.8% | away | 19.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.2% | under_0.5 | 33.8% | over_1.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.5% | over_2.5 | 9.6% | under_2.5 | 90.4% |
btts
| yes | 16.4% | no | 83.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 33.8% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.2% | exact_4plus | 2.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.4% | draw | 31.9% | away | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 84.9% | under_0.5 | 15.1% | over_1.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 43.6% | over_2.5 | 29.4% | under_2.5 | 70.6% |
btts
| yes | 37.4% | no | 62.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 27.3% | H/D | 6.3% | H/A | 3.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.5% | D/D | 14.0% | D/A | 14.3% |
| A/H | 2.2% | A/D | 3.8% | A/A | 13.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.8% | under_7.5 | 25.2% | over_8.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.1% | over_9.5 | 52.3% | under_9.5 | 47.7% |
| over_10.5 | 40.9% | under_10.5 | 59.1% | over_11.5 | 30.6% |
| under_11.5 | 69.4% | over_12.5 | 22.0% | under_12.5 | 78.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.6% | under_3.5 | 27.4% | over_4.5 | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.1% | over_5.5 | 43.4% | under_5.5 | 56.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.0% | under_3.5 | 37.0% | over_4.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.2% | over_5.5 | 32.4% | under_5.5 | 67.6% |
most
| home | 52.3% | draw | 10.0% | away | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.1% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-1.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.9% | home_-0.5 | 52.3% | away_+0.5 | 47.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.3% | away_-0.5 | 37.7% | home_+1.5 | 71.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.5% | home_+3.5 | 85.9% | away_-3.5 | 14.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 67.5% | under_22.5 | 32.6% | over_24.5 | 56.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 43.8% | over_26.5 | 44.7% | under_26.5 | 55.3% |
| over_28.5 | 33.9% | under_28.5 | 66.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.5% | under_10.5 | 23.5% | over_12.5 | 62.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 37.6% | over_14.5 | 47.4% | under_14.5 | 52.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.7% | under_10.5 | 45.4% | over_12.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.1% | over_14.5 | 24.1% | under_14.5 | 75.9% |
most
| home | 64.2% | draw | 5.3% | away | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 41.3% | away_+4.5 | 58.7% | home_-2.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.1% | home_-0.5 | 64.2% | away_+0.5 | 35.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.5% | away_-0.5 | 30.5% | home_+2.5 | 78.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.1% | home_+4.5 | 86.3% | away_-4.5 | 13.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 74.9% | under_6.5 | 25.1% | over_7.5 | 63.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 36.2% | over_8.5 | 52.1% | under_8.5 | 47.9% |
| over_9.5 | 40.8% | under_9.5 | 59.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.2% | under_3.5 | 28.8% | over_4.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.2% | over_5.5 | 41.0% | under_5.5 | 59.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.3% | under_3.5 | 49.7% | over_4.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.7% | over_5.5 | 20.3% | under_5.5 | 79.7% |
most
| home | 59.8% | draw | 11.2% | away | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 36.3% | away_+2.5 | 63.7% | home_-0.5 | 59.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.2% | home_+0.5 | 71.0% | away_-0.5 | 29.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.6% | away_-2.5 | 12.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 78.0% | under_2.5 | 22.0% | over_3.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 40.9% | over_4.5 | 39.6% | under_4.5 | 60.4% |
| over_5.5 | 23.5% | under_5.5 | 76.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 60.7% | under_1.5 | 39.3% | over_2.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.5% | under_1.5 | 38.6% | over_2.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.6% |
most
| home | 39.3% | draw | 20.3% | away | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.8% | away_+1.5 | 78.3% | home_-0.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.7% | home_+0.5 | 59.7% | away_-0.5 | 40.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.4% | away_-1.5 | 22.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 64.3% | under_20.5 | 35.8% | over_22.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 51.8% | over_24.5 | 33.0% | under_24.5 | 67.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 69.2% | under_9.5 | 30.8% | over_11.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 53.2% | over_13.5 | 26.5% | under_13.5 | 73.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 65.7% | under_9.5 | 34.3% | over_11.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 57.2% | over_13.5 | 23.3% | under_13.5 | 76.7% |
most
| home | 48.8% | draw | 8.1% | away | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.1% | away_+3.5 | 73.9% | home_-0.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.2% | home_+2.5 | 71.9% | away_-2.5 | 28.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.3% | no | 86.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.5% | no | 97.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 11.1% | no | 88.9% |
|---|
Method, limits & performance
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.8% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0106 (56049 matches).
More Premier League predictions
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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