AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Bundesliga
FC KolnFC KolnLWLDD
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1114:30UK9°C · Rain
LeverkusenLeverkusenWWWLL

FC Koln vs Leverkusen cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined60.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined39.3%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards60.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for FC Koln vs Leverkusen. The model leans toward Leverkusen for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 79.1% 20.9%
3.5 cards 60.7% 39.4%
4.5 cards 41.2% 58.8%
5.5 cards 24.9% 75.1%

Who picks up more cards

FC Koln
39.5%
Level
20.1%
Leverkusen
40.4%

Team cards lines

FC Koln

Over 1.5
61.8%
Over 2.5
34.8%

Leverkusen

Over 1.5
62.5%
Over 2.5
35.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is FC Koln's; Leverkusen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

FC Koln line FC Koln Leverkusen
-1.5 22.0% 78.0%
-0.5 39.5% 60.5%
+0.5 59.6% 40.4%
+1.5 77.2% 22.8%

Red card

Any red card12.0%
FC Koln red card9.0%
Leverkusen red card3.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 45.1% 54.9%
22.5 fouls 32.9% 67.1%
24.5 fouls 22.7% 77.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
FC Koln Florian Badstubner 2 3.0 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

FC KolnFC Koln

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means FC Koln at home and Leverkusen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LeverkusenLeverkusen
Statistic
FC Koln
Leverkusen
Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
1.3

Matches with card data
4
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,078Matches graded

In 10,263 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.6% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 58.7%✓ 56.2%✓ 59.8%✓ 75.9%✗ 61.0%✓ 62.7%✓ 62.4%✗ 57.2%✗ 52.3%✓ 58.0%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Under 3.5 58.7%Miss
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Over 3.5 56.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Over 3.5 59.8%Hit
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Over 3.5 75.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Over 3.5 61.0%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 60.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 79.1% for over 2.5 to 24.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.2%. On the card count, Leverkusen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 20.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, FC Koln over 1.5 cards sits at 61.8% and Leverkusen at 62.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.0% (FC Koln 9.0%, Leverkusen 3.3%). FC Koln’s most frequent referee this season, Florian Badstubner, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

60.7%Over 3.5 cards
12.0%Any red card
40.4%Most cards: Leverkusen
61.8%FC Koln over 1.5 cards
62.5%Leverkusen over 1.5 cards
32.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 60.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherFlorian Badstubner, FC Koln’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianLeverkusen are the pick to collect more cards at 40.4%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
FC KolnFC Koln

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LeverkusenLeverkusen
Statistic
FC Koln
Leverkusen
fouls per game
11.2
12.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in FC Koln vs Leverkusen?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 60.7% for FC Koln vs Leverkusen.
Will there be a red card in FC Koln vs Leverkusen?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in FC Koln vs Leverkusen?
The model rates Leverkusen to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaFC Koln fixtures and statsLeverkusen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.