ChampionshipCardiff vs Charlton Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 55.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 67.8% for over 22.5 to 31.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.7%. On the shot count, Cardiff are the model’s pick to have more shots at 71.2%, with a level count at 5.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 31.7% | 68.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.9%
66.9%
51.0%
49.6%
31.7%
18.1%
Shot handicap
| Cardiff line | Cardiff | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| -2.5 | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| -0.5 | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| +0.5 | 76.4% | 23.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.4% | 63.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
17.6Cardiff shots per game13.3Cardiff shots faced per game10.1Charlton shots per game15.4Charlton shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Cardiff.
In-depth analysis
55.7%Over 24.5 shots66.9%Cardiff over 12.5 shots31.7%Charlton over 12.5 shots60.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Cardiff over 12.5 shots sits at 66.9% and Charlton at 31.7%. This season Cardiff have averaged 17.6 shots a game and Charlton 10.1.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Cardiff vs Charlton?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 55.7% for Cardiff vs Charlton.
Which team will have more shots in Cardiff vs Charlton?
The model rates Cardiff to take more shots at 71.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
