A measured edge to Goztep: 46% is the model's line for this Süper Lig meeting on 20 September 2026. Our number sits above the market's 40% for Goztep. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (55% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The run in: Goztep arrive W0 D2 L4, Rizespor W3 D1 L2. The recent series reads 3 wins for Goztep, 0 draws and 2 for Rizespor over 5 games, 5.4 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.007 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners46.0%@ 2.17
Over 10.5 corners35.9%@ 2.79
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners56.8%@ 1.76
Over 2.5 goals54.7%@ 1.83
Draw or Rizespor53.9%@ 1.86
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.32
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.70
1-0 correct score8.7%@ 11.52
Model vs market
Goztep
46.1%+5.9%
Draw
25.5%-1.0%
Rizespor
28.4%-4.9%
ModelMarket
conservative EV -0.007 <= 0
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely78.6%Fair 1.27
Over 2.5Close call54.7%Fair 1.83
BTTS · YesClose call57.7%Fair 1.73
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call56.8%Fair 1.76
Over 9.5 cornersClose call46.0%Fair 2.17
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely35.9%Fair 2.79
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.1%Fair 3.69
Most cornersGoztep54.1%Rizespor35.0%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely68.0%Fair 1.47
Over 24.5 shotsClose call56.3%Fair 1.78
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely44.3%Fair 2.26
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely33.0%Fair 3.03
Recent shot volume
Goztep16.7 taken18.7 faced
Rizespor17.3 taken14.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.578.6%2.554.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.6%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.007 <= 0.
Form & head-to-head
GoztepDLLLD
RizesporWLWLW
Last 5 meetings: Goztep 3 · 0 draws · Rizespor 2 · 5.4 goals/game.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Goztep win2.302.17
Draw3.403.92
Rizespor win2.753.52
Over 2.5 goals1.731.83
Under 2.5 goals2.082.21
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goztep win2.17
Draw3.92
Rizespor win3.52
Both teams to score1.73
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.83
Over 3.5 goals3.09
Goztep most2.17
Rizespor most3.52
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.41
Over 8.5 corners1.69
Over 9.5 corners2.14
Over 10.5 corners2.83
Goztep most1.84
Rizespor most2.85
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.58
Over 4.5 cards2.27
Over 5.5 cards3.66
Goztep most3.03
Rizespor most2.11
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.08
Over 9.5 SoT2.75
Goztep most1.64
Rizespor most3.66
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.78
Over 26.5 shots2.26
Over 28.5 shots3.03
Goztep most1.53
Rizespor most3.42
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.18
Over 22.5 fouls1.35
Over 24.5 fouls1.66
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
68.0%
Over 24.5
56.3%
Over 26.5
44.3%
Over 28.5
33.0%
Most: Goztep
65.3%
Most: Rizespor
29.2%
Goztep Over 13.2
55.4%
Rizespor Over 13.2
29.3%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
72.5%
Over 7.5
60.5%
Over 8.5
48.1%
Over 9.5
36.4%
Most: Goztep
61.0%
Most: Rizespor
27.3%
Goztep Over 4.2
54.2%
Rizespor Over 4.2
29.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
81.0%
Over 3.5
63.4%
Over 4.5
44.1%
Most: Goztep
33.0%
Most: Rizespor
47.5%
Goztep Over 1.8
59.0%
Rizespor Over 1.8
68.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Goztep clean sheet
28.8%
Rizespor clean sheet
19.5%
Goztep win to nil
22.6%
Rizespor win to nil
13.3%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
46.1%
draw
25.5%
away
28.4%
double_chance
1X
71.6%
12
74.5%
X2
53.9%
dnb
home
61.9%
away
38.1%
btts
yes
57.7%
no
42.3%
clean_sheet
home
29.0%
away
19.5%
win_to_nil
home
22.8%
away
13.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.8%
home_by_2
14.1%
home_by_3plus
10.2%
away_by_1
16.4%
away_by_2
8.1%
away_by_3plus
4.0%
correct_score
0-0
6.2%
0-1
6.4%
0-2
4.3%
0-3
1.8%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
8.7%
1-1
12.0%
1-2
7.1%
1-3
2.9%
1-4
0.9%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
7.6%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
5.8%
2-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
4.1%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
3.2%
3-3
1.3%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.7%
4-1
2.1%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.8%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
93.8%
under_0.5
6.2%
over_1.5
78.6%
under_1.5
21.4%
over_2.5
54.7%
under_2.5
45.3%
over_3.5
32.4%
under_3.5
67.6%
over_4.5
16.4%
under_4.5
83.7%
over_5.5
7.1%
under_5.5
92.9%
odd_even
odd
48.7%
even
51.3%
team_home
over_0.5
80.5%
under_0.5
19.5%
over_1.5
48.6%
under_1.5
51.4%
over_2.5
22.5%
under_2.5
77.5%
team_away
over_0.5
71.0%
under_0.5
29.0%
over_1.5
35.1%
under_1.5
64.9%
over_2.5
12.9%
under_2.5
87.1%
most
home
46.1%
draw
25.5%
away
28.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
10.2%
away_+2.5
89.8%
home_-1.5
24.3%
away_+1.5
75.7%
home_-0.5
46.1%
away_+0.5
53.9%
home_+0.5
71.6%
away_-0.5
28.4%
home_+1.5
87.9%
away_-1.5
12.1%
home_+2.5
96.0%
away_-2.5
4.0%
total_exact
exact_0
6.2%
exact_1
15.1%
exact_2
23.9%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
16.0%
exact_5
9.2%
exact_6
4.4%
exact_7plus
2.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
31.6%
draw
42.3%
away
26.1%
total
over_0.5
69.4%
under_0.5
30.6%
over_1.5
33.1%
under_1.5
66.9%
over_2.5
11.7%
under_2.5
88.3%
btts
yes
19.8%
no
80.2%
total_exact
exact_0
30.6%
exact_1
36.2%
exact_2
21.4%
exact_3
8.5%
exact_4plus
3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
39.9%
draw
34.0%
away
26.2%
total
over_0.5
81.3%
under_0.5
18.7%
over_1.5
49.9%
under_1.5
50.1%
over_2.5
23.7%
under_2.5
76.4%
btts
yes
31.6%
no
68.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
25.1%
H/D
4.7%
H/A
1.9%
D/H
16.9%
D/D
14.4%
D/A
11.1%
A/H
3.2%
A/D
5.5%
A/A
17.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
71.0%
under_7.5
29.0%
over_8.5
59.1%
under_8.5
40.9%
over_9.5
46.8%
under_9.5
53.2%
over_10.5
35.3%
under_10.5
64.7%
over_11.5
25.3%
under_11.5
74.7%
over_12.5
17.3%
under_12.5
82.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
72.0%
under_3.5
28.0%
over_4.5
56.5%
under_4.5
43.5%
over_5.5
41.3%
under_5.5
58.7%
team_away
over_3.5
58.9%
under_3.5
41.1%
over_4.5
41.8%
under_4.5
58.2%
over_5.5
27.3%
under_5.5
72.8%
most
home
54.3%
draw
10.7%
away
35.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
23.7%
away_+3.5
76.3%
home_-1.5
43.3%
away_+1.5
56.7%
home_-0.5
54.3%
away_+0.5
45.7%
home_+0.5
65.0%
away_-0.5
35.0%
home_+1.5
74.6%
away_-1.5
25.4%
home_+3.5
88.7%
away_-3.5
11.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
68.0%
under_22.5
32.0%
over_24.5
56.3%
under_24.5
43.7%
over_26.5
44.3%
under_26.5
55.7%
over_28.5
33.0%
under_28.5
67.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
77.8%
under_10.5
22.2%
over_12.5
63.2%
under_12.5
36.8%
over_14.5
47.5%
under_14.5
52.5%
team_away
over_10.5
54.6%
under_10.5
45.4%
over_12.5
37.0%
under_12.5
63.0%
over_14.5
22.7%
under_14.5
77.3%
most
home
65.3%
draw
5.5%
away
29.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
41.4%
away_+4.5
58.6%
home_-2.5
53.5%
away_+2.5
46.5%
home_-0.5
65.3%
away_+0.5
34.7%
home_+0.5
70.8%
away_-0.5
29.2%
home_+2.5
80.3%
away_-2.5
19.7%
home_+4.5
87.6%
away_-4.5
12.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
72.5%
under_6.5
27.5%
over_7.5
60.5%
under_7.5
39.5%
over_8.5
48.1%
under_8.5
51.9%
over_9.5
36.4%
under_9.5
63.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
70.4%
under_3.5
29.6%
over_4.5
54.2%
under_4.5
45.9%
over_5.5
38.6%
under_5.5
61.4%
team_away
over_3.5
46.9%
under_3.5
53.1%
over_4.5
29.5%
under_4.5
70.5%
over_5.5
16.9%
under_5.5
83.1%
most
home
61.0%
draw
11.6%
away
27.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
36.1%
away_+2.5
63.9%
home_-0.5
61.0%
away_+0.5
39.0%
home_+0.5
72.7%
away_-0.5
27.3%
home_+2.5
89.3%
away_-2.5
10.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
81.0%
under_2.5
19.0%
over_3.5
63.4%
under_3.5
36.6%
over_4.5
44.1%
under_4.5
55.9%
over_5.5
27.4%
under_5.5
72.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
59.0%
under_1.5
41.0%
over_2.5
31.9%
under_2.5
68.1%
team_away
over_1.5
68.6%
under_1.5
31.4%
over_2.5
42.4%
under_2.5
57.6%
most
home
33.1%
draw
19.5%
away
47.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
17.5%
away_+1.5
82.5%
home_-0.5
33.1%
away_+0.5
67.0%
home_+0.5
52.5%
away_-0.5
47.5%
home_+1.5
71.1%
away_-1.5
28.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
85.0%
under_20.5
15.0%
over_22.5
74.0%
under_22.5
26.0%
over_24.5
60.3%
under_24.5
39.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
90.3%
under_9.5
9.7%
over_11.5
77.4%
under_11.5
22.6%
over_13.5
59.3%
under_13.5
40.7%
team_away
over_9.5
69.3%
under_9.5
30.7%
over_11.5
47.3%
under_11.5
52.7%
over_13.5
27.2%
under_13.5
72.8%
most
home
69.0%
draw
6.2%
away
24.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
47.5%
away_+3.5
52.5%
home_-0.5
69.0%
away_+0.5
31.0%
home_+2.5
85.4%
away_-2.5
14.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
18.5%
no
81.5%
home
yes
4.8%
no
95.2%
away
yes
14.4%
no
85.6%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Süper Lig
Goztep
Rizespor