Burnley vs Derby: model prediction
Championship
BurnleyLDLDL
LWLLL
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Derby
Over 8.5 corners
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Win probability · fair 2.58
Top signals
Model read
Little between these two in the data. Derby at 39% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 19 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. • Form guide over the last six: Burnley W0 D2 L4, Derby W1 D1 L4. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Burnley, 3 draws and 0 for Derby over 4 games, 1.2 goals on average. Burnley are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Team news worth noting: Burnley have Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe, Mike Tresor, Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan Beyer ruled out. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
33.4%
27.8%
38.8%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Burnley 1 · 3 draws · Derby 0 · 1.3 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
BurnleyDerby71.4%71.4%
100.0%42.9%
0.0%14.3%
League averages this season: 2.76 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 60% · BTTS in 64%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
- Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe, Mike Tresor, Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan BeyerBurnleyOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 62.2% | Over 24.5 | 49.5% | Over 26.5 | 37.3% | Over 28.5 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Burnley | 64.9% | Most: Derby | 29.3% | ||||
| Burnley Over 13.2 | 50.1% | Derby Over 13.2 | 25.1% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.7% | Over 7.5 | 52.6% | Over 8.5 | 39.9% | Over 9.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Burnley | 57.9% | Most: Derby | 29.5% | ||||
| Burnley Over 4.2 | 46.5% | Derby Over 4.2 | 26.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 75.4% | Over 3.5 | 55.6% | Over 4.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Burnley | 26.1% | Most: Derby | 54.3% | ||
| Burnley Over 1.8 | 47.6% | Derby Over 1.8 | 67.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| Burnley clean sheet | 26.1% |
|---|---|
| Derby clean sheet | 29.2% |
| Burnley win to nil | 17.8% |
| Derby win to nil | 20.9% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 33.4% | draw | 27.8% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 61.2% | 12 | 72.2% | X2 | 66.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 46.3% | away | 53.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.8% | no | 47.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.2% | away | 29.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 17.9% | away | 21.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.0% | home_by_2 | 9.7% | home_by_3plus | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.8% | away_by_2 | 11.5% | away_by_3plus | 6.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 0-1 | 9.6% | 0-2 | 6.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.1% | 0-4 | 1.0% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 8.5% |
| 1-3 | 3.8% | 1-4 | 1.3% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 5.8% | 2-1 | 7.7% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.4% | 3-1 | 3.2% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.7% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 73.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.7% | over_2.5 | 47.4% | under_2.5 | 52.6% |
| over_3.5 | 25.7% | under_3.5 | 74.3% | over_4.5 | 11.8% |
| under_4.5 | 88.2% | over_5.5 | 4.7% | under_5.5 | 95.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.7% | under_0.5 | 29.3% | over_1.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.3% | over_2.5 | 12.7% | under_2.5 | 87.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 73.9% | under_0.5 | 26.2% | over_1.5 | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.2% | over_2.5 | 15.3% | under_2.5 | 84.7% |
most
| home | 33.4% | draw | 27.8% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.8% | away_+2.5 | 95.2% | home_-1.5 | 14.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.5% | home_-0.5 | 33.4% | away_+0.5 | 66.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% | home_+1.5 | 82.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.0% | home_+2.5 | 93.5% | away_-2.5 | 6.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.3% | exact_1 | 18.4% | exact_2 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 13.9% | exact_5 | 7.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.8% | draw | 38.8% | away | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.5% | under_0.5 | 25.5% | over_1.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.3% | over_2.5 | 15.9% | under_2.5 | 84.1% |
btts
| yes | 24.5% | no | 75.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.5% | exact_1 | 34.8% | exact_2 | 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.9% | exact_4plus | 5.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.1% | draw | 37.9% | away | 24.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.3% | under_0.5 | 24.7% | over_1.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.3% | over_2.5 | 16.6% | under_2.5 | 83.4% |
btts
| yes | 24.6% | no | 75.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 26.0% | H/D | 4.4% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.8% | D/D | 14.7% | D/A | 9.3% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 6.0% | A/A | 20.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.9% | under_7.5 | 21.1% | over_8.5 | 68.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 31.4% | over_9.5 | 57.0% | under_9.5 | 43.0% |
| over_10.5 | 45.3% | under_10.5 | 54.7% | over_11.5 | 34.3% |
| under_11.5 | 65.7% | over_12.5 | 24.8% | under_12.5 | 75.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 80.3% | under_3.5 | 19.8% | over_4.5 | 66.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 33.2% | over_5.5 | 52.0% | under_5.5 | 48.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.7% | under_3.5 | 38.4% | over_4.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.7% | over_5.5 | 29.2% | under_5.5 | 70.8% |
most
| home | 60.0% | draw | 10.0% | away | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.2% | away_+3.5 | 70.9% | home_-1.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.6% | home_-0.5 | 60.0% | away_+0.5 | 40.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.0% | away_-0.5 | 30.0% | home_+1.5 | 78.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.3% | home_+3.5 | 90.9% | away_-3.5 | 9.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.2% | under_22.5 | 37.8% | over_24.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.4% | over_26.5 | 37.3% | under_26.5 | 62.7% |
| over_28.5 | 26.5% | under_28.5 | 73.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.5% | under_10.5 | 25.5% | over_12.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.5% | over_14.5 | 42.0% | under_14.5 | 58.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.6% | under_10.5 | 49.4% | over_12.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.4% | over_14.5 | 18.8% | under_14.5 | 81.2% |
most
| home | 64.9% | draw | 5.8% | away | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.7% | away_+4.5 | 60.3% | home_-2.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.6% | home_-0.5 | 64.9% | away_+0.5 | 35.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.7% | away_-0.5 | 29.3% | home_+2.5 | 80.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.3% | home_+4.5 | 88.3% | away_-4.5 | 11.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.7% | under_6.5 | 34.3% | over_7.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.4% | over_8.5 | 39.9% | under_8.5 | 60.2% |
| over_9.5 | 28.6% | under_9.5 | 71.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.8% | under_3.5 | 36.2% | over_4.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.5% | over_5.5 | 31.0% | under_5.5 | 69.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 43.4% | under_3.5 | 56.6% | over_4.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.7% | over_5.5 | 14.4% | under_5.5 | 85.6% |
most
| home | 57.9% | draw | 12.6% | away | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.0% | away_+2.5 | 68.1% | home_-0.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.1% | home_+0.5 | 70.5% | away_-0.5 | 29.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.8% | away_-2.5 | 11.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 75.4% | under_2.5 | 24.6% | over_3.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 44.4% | over_4.5 | 36.1% | under_4.5 | 63.9% |
| over_5.5 | 20.7% | under_5.5 | 79.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 47.6% | under_1.5 | 52.4% | over_2.5 | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 78.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 67.9% | under_1.5 | 32.1% | over_2.5 | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.5% |
most
| home | 26.1% | draw | 19.6% | away | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 12.1% | away_+1.5 | 87.9% | home_-0.5 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 73.9% | home_+0.5 | 45.7% | away_-0.5 | 54.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 66.1% | away_-1.5 | 33.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 61.9% | under_20.5 | 38.1% | over_22.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 53.7% | over_24.5 | 31.7% | under_24.5 | 68.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 54.8% | under_9.5 | 45.2% | over_11.5 | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 67.5% | over_13.5 | 16.1% | under_13.5 | 83.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 74.6% | under_9.5 | 25.4% | over_11.5 | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 45.8% | over_13.5 | 33.9% | under_13.5 | 66.1% |
most
| home | 31.2% | draw | 7.3% | away | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 13.9% | away_+3.5 | 86.1% | home_-0.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.8% | home_+2.5 | 54.3% | away_-2.5 | 45.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.7% | no | 89.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.1% | no | 93.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.9% | no | 95.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Burnley predictions · Derby predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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