ChampionshipCardiff vs Charlton Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 48.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.0% for over 2.5 to 15.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.8%. Head to head on cards, Charlton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.8%, with a level count at 20.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.7% | 70.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.8% | 84.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
43.5%
18.6%
63.0%
36.1%
Card handicap
| Cardiff line | Cardiff | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.9% | 88.1% |
| -0.5 | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| +0.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| +1.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 34.1% | 65.9% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | A Kitchen | 2 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
This season (2026/27)
1.7Cardiff cards per game10.4Cardiff fouls per game1.6Charlton cards per game11.6Charlton fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cardiff vs Charlton. Slightly more cards are projected for Charlton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
48.8%Over 3.5 cards6.9%Any red card43.5%Cardiff over 1.5 cards63.0%Charlton over 1.5 cards48.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Cardiff over 1.5 cards sits at 43.5% and Charlton at 63.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.9% (Cardiff 4.4%, Charlton 2.6%). Charlton’s most frequent referee this season, A Kitchen, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Cardiff have averaged 1.7 cards a game and Charlton 1.6.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Cardiff vs Charlton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.8% for Cardiff vs Charlton.
Will there be a red card in Cardiff vs Charlton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cardiff vs Charlton?
The model rates Charlton to pick up more cards at 52.8%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
